美豆周度报告-20250720

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards, with a price range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariffs on the world, good weather in US soybean - growing regions with high yield prospects, and higher - than - expected weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate [5]. - Positive factors are support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight old - crop balance sheet, strong concerns about drought in US soybean - growing regions under ENSO neutral conditions, and a slightly lower - than - expected planting area [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Prices - This week, the US soybean price rebounded by 23.5 cents, driven by progress in US - Indonesia trade negotiations, strong expectation of continued improvement in China - US relations, and a record - high US soybean crush volume in June [7]. - Next week, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff policies towards other countries and the weather in US main - growing regions [8]. - The US soybean meal price rebounded from a low by $3.7 per short ton to $274 per short ton, as trade negotiations between the US and countries like Indonesia and Vietnam improved the export demand expectation for US agricultural products [11]. - The US soybean oil price rose to 55.82 cents per pound, with a weekly increase of 2.07 cents per pound, propelled by biodiesel expectations, impressive NOPA June crush and inventory data, and rising crude oil prices [15]. - As of the week ending July 11, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports slightly decreased, and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) declined, while the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa increased [17][19][22]. - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 113.24 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose by 1.63 to 137.77 reais per bag [24][26]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing regions continued to improve, with a drought rate of 26% this week compared to 32% last week [29]. - In the next two weeks, temperatures in central and southern US will be higher than normal, and most of the US soybean - growing regions will have normal to slightly above - normal precipitation (except Nebraska, which will have less precipitation) [31][33]. - Precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - growing regions is normal to above - normal [36][37]. - As of the week ending July 11, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 66% last week and 68% in the same period last year [39]. Demand Factors - As of the week ending July 11, the US soybean crush profit was $2.46 per bushel, up from $2.43 last week [42]. - The weekly US soybean export volume was 276,400 tons, down from 395,800 tons last week. The weekly export inspection volume was 147,000 tons, down from 389,300 tons last week. The net sales for this year were 271,800 tons, down from 500,300 tons last week, and the sales for next year were 529,500 tons, up from 248,400 tons last week [44][46][48]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [52]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.472, approaching the La Nina range [55]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [57][59]. - As of July 15, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 17,400 lots, up from 11,700 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 58,200 lots, up from 53,100 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 113,800 lots, down from 117,800 lots last week [63][65][67].