中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly increased, with expected further growth next week due to the resumption of many maintenance - shut devices. May's export data exceeded expectations, and this month's export volume is expected to remain favorable. However, the domestic apparent demand growth rate in July may be lower than the expected - 2%. This week, there was inventory accumulation, and next - week's inventory trend depends on domestic demand [6]. - The overall profit of the upstream PVC and caustic soda industry slightly declined this week, but manufacturers have no intention to further reduce production loads for now. Traders are cautious, but their purchasing willingness may increase with the emergence of delivery profit points. Downstream开工率 remains weak, with most transactions concentrated among futures - spot traders [9]. Caustic Soda - This week, the overall caustic soda production increased slightly, and a more significant increase is expected next week as many maintenance - shut devices resume operation. May's caustic soda export volume was lower than expected, and the estimated export volume is around 4 - 6 tons. This week, the national inventory slightly increased, and it may slightly decrease next week if the apparent demand meets expectations [102]. - Upstream caustic soda manufacturers have started to slightly reduce prices, and production is increasing as previously maintained devices resume operation. Traders are cautious with low purchasing willingness, and the support from downstream alumina procurement prices is weakening [106]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production this week was 45.62 million tons, with ethylene - based production at 11.59 million tons and calcium - carbide - based production at 34.03 million tons. Import and export volumes remained stable this week, with an import volume of 1.5 million tons and an export volume of 5.75 million tons per week. The apparent demand was 40.95 million tons, and the total inventory was 77.85 million tons, showing a 0.42 - million - ton increase [6]. - The prices of related products: caustic soda 32% increased from 790 to 810 yuan/ton, Shandong liquid chlorine rose from - 550 to - 400 yuan/ton, Shandong raw salt remained stable at 210 yuan/ton, Shaanxi semi - coke decreased from 620 to 585 yuan/ton, and ethylene prices started to decline [7]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - In terms of production profit, the calcium - carbide production profit in Shaanxi increased from - 460 to - 432 yuan/ton, and the calcium - carbide production profit in Inner Mongolia increased from 92 to 120 yuan/ton. The northwest integrated PVC profit increased from - 571 to - 454 yuan/ton, while the Shandong externally - purchased calcium - carbide method profit decreased from - 101 to - 291 yuan/ton [8]. - In terms of import - export profit, the FOB Tianjin relative export profit increased from - 5 to 2 yuan/ton, and the theoretical export profit to India increased from 547 to 639 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated and strengthened, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated and weakened [8]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - The overall profit of the upstream PVC and caustic soda industry slightly declined this week. The Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased from - 138 to - 231 yuan/ton, and the export profit slightly improved [8]. 3.1.4 Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to reach around 45.98 million tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 42.92 million tons. If current production and demand levels are maintained, inventory is expected to decrease, but it may continue to accumulate if domestic demand remains weak [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - This week, caustic soda production was 80.97 million tons, with an import volume of 0.02 million tons and an export volume of 4.6 million tons per week. The apparent demand was 75.87 million tons, and the total inventory (in 100% equivalent) was 21.60 million tons, showing a 0.52 - million - ton increase [102]. - The price of Shandong liquid chlorine rebounded from - 550 to - 400 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong raw salt remained stable at 210 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased from - 138 to - 231 yuan/ton, and the caustic soda export profit showed an upward trend. The basis of 32% caustic soda weakened, and the spread showed a wait - and - see trend [105]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - The overall profit of the caustic soda industry chain showed a mixed trend this week. The profit of externally - sold liquid - chlorine - type devices improved, while the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises slightly declined [105]. 3.2.4 Market Expectation - Next week, caustic soda production is expected to reach 81.29 million tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be around 77.5 million tons. If the apparent demand meets expectations, the inventory may slightly decrease [102].