Soochow Securities·2025-07-20 13:46Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Views - The fire at Covestro's German plant has led to a rapid increase in TDI prices, which may also drive up MDI prices [1] - Covestro's TDI production capacity of 300,000 tons/year is significantly impacted, affecting 30% of TDI capacity in Europe [4] - Domestic TDI prices have risen to 14,913 RMB/ton, a 6.04% increase, with expectations for further price hikes in Q3 [4] - The report anticipates that TDI price increases will lead to a rise in MDI prices, which are currently at 15,200 RMB/ton, up 1.33% [4] Industry Trends - Covestro's supply disruptions and domestic maintenance activities are tightening TDI supply, leading to increased prices [4] - The report notes that overseas TDI capacity is shrinking, with significant closures in Germany and Japan, which may benefit Chinese exporters [4] - China's TDI exports reached 51,600 tons in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.45%, indicating strong demand in Southeast Asia [4] - The report highlights key companies in the industry, including Wanhua Chemical, Cangzhou Dahua, and Hualu Hengsheng, with respective TDI capacities of 1,110,000 tons/year, 160,000 tons/year, and 300,000 tons/year planned for 2024 [4]