研究周报：绿色金融与新能源-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but the real - world situation limits the upside potential. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and real - world supply - demand [4][5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry is in a de - stocking phase, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is a key factor to watch. For polysilicon, it is a policy - driven market, and it may be safer to go long on dips [30][34][35]. - Lithium carbonate: Driven by the "Anti - Involution 1.0 + Lithium Mine 2.0" policies, the price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the approval of mining licenses in August [63][66]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals - Nickel: Macro and news improve market sentiment, but the real - world fundamentals limit the price elasticity. The support from the nickel ore end is weakening, and the supply expectations from the smelting end restrict the upside [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro - expectations boost the futures market, but real - world supply - demand is still a drag. The market is expected to oscillate [5]. - Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. Nickel - iron inventory pressure is high but slightly eased, and stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [6][7]. - China's port nickel - ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9,483,600 wet tons [9]. - Market News - Multiple events such as potential export restrictions, project startups, factory resumptions, and production suspensions in the nickel and stainless - steel industries were reported [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose, with the futures closing at 8,695 yuan/ton on Friday. Polysilicon futures soared, closing at 43,850 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot price also increased [30]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Industrial silicon: Supply - side production increased, with Southwest China having a hedging action. The overall industry inventory continued to decline, with a social inventory reduction of 4,000 tons and a factory inventory reduction of 1,000 tons. Demand from polysilicon and organic silicon provided short - term support [31]. - Polysilicon: Supply increased marginally as some factories resumed production. The upstream inventory decreased, but the terminal demand was weak, and the price increase transmission was not smooth [32][33]. - Market Outlook - Industrial silicon is expected to be resilient before the end of the market sentiment, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is crucial. Polysilicon is in a policy - driven market, and going long on dips may be a safer strategy [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends - The lithium carbonate futures contracts accelerated their upward movement. The 2509 contract closed at 69,960 yuan/ton, up 5,680 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose by 2,900 yuan/ton to 66,650 yuan/ton [63]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Supply: Policy issues in Jiangxi and Qinghai regions affected the market. Lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching 19,115 tons this week, a 1.61% increase [64]. - Demand: The inventory accumulation of downstream cathode materials slowed down. The new - energy storage project installation scale decreased significantly in June [65]. - Inventory: The social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to increase, mainly concentrated in the trading sector, while the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,364 tons to 10,239 tons [65]. - Market Outlook - Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, with the futures main - contract price expected to range from 55,000 to 75,000 yuan/ton. A positive spread strategy is recommended for the inter - period trading, and selling hedging is advised [66][67][68].