Guotou Securities·2025-07-20 14:04Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of 95.60 CNY per share, based on an expected EPS of 4.78 CNY for 2025 and a PE ratio of 20 times [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is evolving into a leading integrated CRDMO service platform, driving continuous growth in its business segments, particularly in small molecule D&M, TIDES, testing, and biological services [13][15]. - The CRDMO industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in outsourcing demand, driven by ongoing investments in drug development, particularly in GLP-1 and ADC sectors [27][28]. - The company has shown robust growth in its project pipeline, with significant increases in both the number of projects and commercialized products, indicating strong operational capabilities and market demand [40][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Integrated CRDMO Service Platform - The company has developed into a global leader in integrated CRDMO services, expanding its global network and service offerings since its establishment in 2000 [13][14]. - Revenue has grown from 4.883 billion CNY in 2015 to an expected 39.241 billion CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 26.05%, while net profit has increased from 0.349 billion CNY to 9.450 billion CNY in the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 44.27% [15][19]. 2. CRDMO Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in CRDMO outsourcing demand, supported by the rapid commercialization of drugs like GLP-1 and ADC, which are expected to drive revenue growth for CRDMO companies [27][28]. - The company’s backlog of orders reached 523.3 billion CNY by March 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.1% [35]. 3. Business Segment Performance 3.1. Chemical Business - The small molecule D&M business is experiencing steady growth, with revenue reaching 17.870 billion CNY in 2024, and a projected increase of 13.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [40][42]. - The TIDES business is benefiting from high demand in the peptide sector, with revenue expected to grow from 2.04 billion CNY in 2022 to 5.8 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 68.74% [54][55]. 3.2. Testing Business - The testing segment, including SMO services, has maintained a leading position in the industry, with revenue from clinical CRO and SMO services growing from 1.087 billion CNY in 2020 to 1.810 billion CNY in 2024 [59][61]. - The SMO service team has expanded to 4,700 personnel, covering over 1,000 hospitals across 150 cities, contributing to the successful approval of 255 new products over the past decade [61][62]. 3.3. Biological Business - The company is focusing on building capabilities related to new molecular types, with over 290 clients served and more than 1,400 projects delivered since 2021 in the nucleic acid platform [63][64]. - The revenue from new molecular types is increasingly contributing to the overall growth of the biological segment [63].