Huachuang Securities·2025-07-20 14:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a warming sentiment combined with cost support, leading to a strong performance in steel prices. The report notes that the prices for five major steel products have shown weekly increases, with rebar prices reaching 3,316 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.83% increase week-on-week [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel, which is expected to optimize supply structure and eliminate outdated production capacity [3]. - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to see a long-term recovery in both valuation and performance, driven by improved profitability and a reduction in production capacity in certain regions [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - As of July 18, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,316 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,629 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,345 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,775 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,425 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of +0.83%, +0.76%, +1.47%, +1.16%, and +0.91% respectively [1][15]. - The total production of the five major products reached 8.6819 million tons, a decrease of 45,300 tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.89%, up by 0.99 percentage points [1][18]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The report highlights that the production data indicates a slight increase in iron output and a recovery in electric arc furnace operation rates, suggesting a stabilization in the industry despite seasonal demand weakness [2][18]. (b) Consumption Volume of Five Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major products was 8.7011 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 29,600 tons week-on-week, with specific changes in consumption for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate [1][39]. (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory stood at 13.3766 million tons, a decrease of 19,200 tons week-on-week, with social inventory increasing by 81,000 tons to 9.2211 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 100,200 tons to 4.1555 million tons [1][51]. (d) Profitability Situation - The average molten iron cost for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,256 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil was +171 CNY/ton, +146 CNY/ton, and +32 CNY/ton respectively, with slight variations noted [1][4]. 3. Stock Market Performance - The steel index closed at 2,294.69 points, with a weekly increase of 0.36%, while the overall A-share index rose by 1.40% [4][6]. - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the steel sector remains low, with specific companies showing potential for recovery in both valuation and profitability [10].