汽车行业双周报：汽车反内卷力度加码，看好科技、品牌向上的车企-20250720

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified efforts to combat "involution," leading to a more orderly terminal price competition. Since May 2025, various government departments have indicated a commitment to regulate "involution-style" competition in the automotive sector, with measures including cost investigations and price monitoring [3][6] - The impact of "involution" is expected to be more adverse for mid-to-low-end manufacturers, while manufacturers that can create user demand through technology and branding are likely to benefit [3][15] - The anticipated reduction in subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2026 may put pressure on actual sales growth, despite short-term support from consumer expectations of recovering discounts and potential tax incentives [3][16] Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Involution Measures - The core reason for the current round of involution in the automotive industry is weak demand, triggered by price cuts from major players like BYD. The market is entering a phase of stock competition, with many manufacturers resorting to price cuts to gain market share [6][7] - Key measures to combat involution include resisting low-price competition, enhancing product quality checks, advocating for the orderly exit of outdated capacities, and standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days [7][10] Impact on Price Competition - The measures taken are expected to lead to a more orderly terminal price competition, with significant promotional policies being retracted and efforts to stabilize dealer inventories and accelerate rebate payments [10][12] - Several manufacturers have committed to paying dealers within 60 days, which is expected to alleviate pressure on dealer inventories and stabilize terminal prices [11][13] Sales Outlook - The automotive industry is projected to face challenges in sales growth due to the anticipated reduction in NEV purchase tax subsidies in 2026. The expected decrease in subsidies may lead to a decline in sales growth rates, particularly for low-price segment manufacturers [16][17] - Historical data suggests that previous tax reduction policies have led to significant sales increases, indicating that the upcoming subsidy changes could similarly impact sales dynamics [20][21]