Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-20 15:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the instant retail industry, projecting a significant growth potential with a market size expected to reach 3.8 trillion yuan by 2029, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2024 to 2029 [4][46]. Core Insights - Instant retail is reshaping the consumption ecosystem by focusing on "instant demand" scenarios, providing a unique supply and fulfillment system that emphasizes a delivery time of 30 minutes to 2 hours, distinguishing it from traditional e-commerce models [4][18]. - The competition among major platforms such as Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com is intensifying, with each leveraging their unique strengths to capture market share in the instant retail space [4][6]. - The report highlights that the instant retail market is expected to expand significantly, driven by changing consumer habits, technological advancements, and supportive policies [4][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Transformation - Instant retail is characterized by its ability to meet immediate consumer needs through a combination of online ordering and local fulfillment, creating a closed-loop system that enhances efficiency [18][19]. - The market for instant retail is projected to grow from 650 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.8 trillion yuan by 2029, indicating a robust growth trajectory [4][43]. 2. Competitive Landscape - Major players are competing across multiple dimensions, including pricing, quality, and fulfillment efficiency, with a shift from price wars to a focus on quality and user experience [4][6]. - Meituan leads the market with a well-established rider network and merchant ecosystem, while Alibaba and JD.com are rapidly expanding their instant retail capabilities through strategic integrations and user engagement initiatives [4][51]. 3. Platform Strategies - Meituan's competitive edge lies in its extensive rider network and digital operations, achieving over 1.5 billion orders as of July 2025 [4][51]. - Alibaba's integration of Ele.me and its main platform has resulted in rapid user conversion, with over 80 million orders within a short period [4][51]. - JD.com is leveraging its logistics and supply chain advantages to expand its instant delivery services, achieving significant order volumes shortly after launching its delivery service [4][51]. 4. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of user retention and the need for platforms to build strong supply chain capabilities and quality merchant offerings to sustain growth in the long term [5][6]. - The shift towards high-frequency consumption scenarios is expected to drive cross-selling opportunities, enhancing overall platform engagement and user activity [5][6].