供给扰动碳酸锂超跌修复，战略金属价值持续重估

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decline in China's cobalt intermediate imports in June, with a month-on-month decrease of 61.6%, indicating a potential supply vacuum in the second half of the year [2][4] - Lithium prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to recent positive signals, but long-term resource clearing signals remain unclear [4] - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are undergoing a value reassessment, with strong demand recovery anticipated in the medium to long term [4] Summary by Sections Cobalt and Nickel - China's cobalt intermediate imports in June were 18,991 tons, down 61.6% month-on-month, leading to a potential second wave of price increases as domestic inventory is digested [2][4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize as macroeconomic expectations improve, with a long-term upward price trend anticipated [4] Lithium - Recent events, including regulatory changes in lithium mining, indicate stricter domestic mining controls, contributing to short-term price increases for lithium products [4] - The report suggests that while short-term momentum is strong, the long-term supply-demand balance remains uncertain [4] Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a notable price increase for rare earth concentrates reported at 19,100 yuan/ton, up 1.5% month-on-month [4] - The demand for rare earths is expected to recover due to traditional applications and the acceleration of humanoid robot deployment [4] Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.70% [14] - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost advantages and volume growth potential in the strategic metals sector [4]