策略快评：犹豫理解共识：16年供给侧改革三部曲

Core Insights - The report identifies the "anti-involution" policy as a new round of supply-side reform, which aims to improve the persistently low price performance and may significantly impact asset allocation, shifting from a balanced strategy to a focus on core assets represented by large-cap growth stocks [1][12][47] - The historical context of the supply-side structural reform from 2016 to 2018 is analyzed, highlighting the market's journey from skepticism to optimism, and the importance of understanding the timing of policy implementation and market reactions [1][13] Policy Implementation Timing - The Central Economic Work Conference in November 2015 marked the clear signal for policy action, with specific policy documents for the steel and coal industries being released within three months, leading to rapid local government implementation [1][14][27] - The supply-side reform involved adjustments in the relationship between central and local governments, with local fiscal pressure alleviating as a key factor in the successful implementation of policies [1][15][27] Market Reaction Timeline - Commodity prices began to stabilize at the end of 2015, with significant price increases for rebar and thermal coal starting in mid-2016, indicating a market response to the supply-side reforms [3][10][38] - The stock market showed cautious behavior in the first half of 2016, but began to recover in the second half, particularly in the steel and coal sectors, which saw significant upward trends and excess returns [3][41][42] Key Changes in Supply-Side Reform - The 2016 supply-side reform was characterized by high efficiency, strong determination, and a shift in market expectations, with policies requiring not just the elimination of outdated capacity but also a mandatory reduction of overall capacity [2][8][28] - Accompanying measures, such as financial support and worker placement policies, were implemented to alleviate local government concerns, enhancing the commitment to the reforms [2][29][30] Focus Areas for Current Policies - Current policies are focused on the sustainability of local fiscal pressure relief, the issuance of specific industry policy documents, and the enforcement of local assessment constraints and accompanying measures [2][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of local government revenues and the potential impact of land sales on fiscal health, which could provide the necessary support for the "anti-involution" policies [34][35] Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The report concludes that the success of the current "anti-involution" policies hinges on the ability to clear supply, which should lead to price recovery and subsequently improve corporate earnings, creating a positive feedback loop in the market [12][47]