申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250721

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential impact of rumors regarding Trump's possible dismissal of Powell, which has led to significant market volatility across stocks, bonds, and currencies [2][11] - The defense and military industry is expected to see a performance turning point, with 48 key companies projected to report a total of approximately 6.768 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 11.2% [10][12] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3534 points, with a daily increase of 0.5% and a monthly increase of 0.69% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2154 points, with a daily increase of 0.36% and a monthly increase of 1.74% [1] - The large-cap index showed a 6-month performance increase of 6.72%, while the small-cap index increased by 11.95% over the same period [1] Industry Performance - The small metals sector experienced a significant increase of 25.75% over the past 6 months, while energy metals rose by 14.3% [1] - Conversely, the animal health sector saw a decline of 33.8% over the past 6 months, indicating a stark contrast in performance across different industries [1] Defense and Military Industry Insights - The military industry is entering a growth cycle driven by domestic demand, particularly due to ongoing military modernization efforts [15][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of military trade, which is expected to resonate strongly with domestic supply and demand dynamics, creating a new landscape for military exports [15][24] - Key companies in the defense sector are recommended for investment, including those involved in next-generation equipment and precision-guided munitions [26]