Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound due to factors such as the expected US copper tariff implementation and limited actual demand growth, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 77,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise driven by low inventory and positive sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited as the downstream is in the off - season and export demand is weak. The domestic main contract is expected to trade between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2,550 - 2,680 dollars/ton [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption is suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the supply is low but the demand is also weak, with the domestic tin price expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and LME tin between 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel ore prices are expected to decline due to weak demand, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation, with the short - term SHFE nickel main contract expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9][10]. - Lithium carbonate prices had a significant weekly increase, but the weak reality remains. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is expected to trade between 68,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strong in the short term but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless steel prices may rise slightly due to policy and demand support, but the de - stocking pressure of 304 series products is still prominent [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise further due to cost support and positive macro - atmosphere, but may face downward pressure after the increase [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose, with LME copper rising 1.36% to 9,794 dollars/ton and SHFE copper main contract closing at 79,040 yuan/ton [1]. - Three major exchanges' inventories increased by 21,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 2,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased [1]. - The LME market's Cash/3M discount widened, and the domestic basis quotes were differentiated [1]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with SHFE aluminum main contract falling 0.89% and LME aluminum rising 1.38% to 2,638 dollars/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest decreased by 55,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased to 67,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 492,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased to 116,000 tons [3]. - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 16,836 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 3 to 1,977 dollars/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was at par, and the price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized [4]. - The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and both social and enterprise inventories increased [4]. - The consumption of lead ingots was suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.80% to 22,285 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 56.5 to 2,753.5 dollars/ton [6]. - The domestic supply of zinc ore was abundant, and the import zinc concentrate TC index increased significantly [6]. - In June, the domestic refined zinc output increased by 36,000 tons to 585,000 tons, and the supply is expected to continue to increase [6]. - The short - term zinc price may show an oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated narrowly [7]. - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure [7]. - The consumption in the off - season was poor, and the order volume of downstream factories was low [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly [7]. Nickel - Nickel ore prices stabilized after a decline, and are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [8]. - The demand for stainless steel had some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction was still large [8]. - The supply of nickel iron may decrease slightly in July, and the over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term [8]. - The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [9]. - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated around 120,000 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was cautious [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate had a significant weekly increase, with the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate rising 1,000 yuan on average [12]. - The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate also increased [12]. - The weak reality of lithium carbonate remains, with high production and inventory [12]. Alumina - On July 18, the alumina index rose 1.33% to 3,120 yuan/ton [14]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed [14]. - The futures warehouse receipts decreased to a historical low [14]. - The short - term price may be strong, but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,725 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot prices in some markets increased, and the raw material prices were stable [17]. - The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 1.69% [17]. - The stainless steel price may rise slightly due to policy and demand support [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, cast aluminum alloy futures prices first declined and then rose, with the AD2511 contract falling 0.28% to 19,875 yuan/ton [19]. - The weighted contract's open interest decreased slightly, and the contract spread was stable [19]. - The spot price was relatively stable, and the production cost increased [19]. - The production volume increased, and the total inventory decreased [19].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250721
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-21 01:08