股指期货：总量缺利空，结构撑风偏

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with the growth style leading. The core driver of the rise lies in the lack of negative disturbances, keeping the market risk appetite on the bullish side, and the structural market continued [1]. - In the short - term, A - share risk appetite is positive. Without significant negative factors, the stock index will show a volatile and strong pattern. In the medium - term, the economic outlook is moderately recovering, the confidence in the capital market is improving, and external geopolitical disturbances are not likely to cause a long - term negative trend, maintaining a bullish market pattern [1][2]. - Attention should be paid to the formulation and implementation of anti - involution and anti - deflation policies, as well as the expected Fed policies [3]. 3. Summary by Sections Market Review and Outlook - Global Index Performance: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07%, the S&P 500 rose 0.59%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.51%. In the European market, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.57%, the German DAX rose 0.14%, and the French CAC40 fell 0.08%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.63%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.84% [8]. - Domestic Index Performance: All major domestic indices rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69%. Since 2025, various major indices have also shown an upward trend [8]. - Industry Performance: In the spot market, most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. The communication, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors were among the top gainers, while the media, real estate, and public utilities sectors were among the top losers [1][10]. - Index Futures Performance: Among the index futures main contracts last week, IM had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume of index futures rebounded, while the open interest declined [12][15]. - Index Valuation: As of July 18, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.38 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 13.38 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 11.38 times [19]. - Market Capital Flow: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net injection [22]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term Strategy: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set the stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - Trend Strategy: Adopt a bullish approach. The expected core operating ranges for the main contracts of IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 are 3932 - 4135 points, 2699 - 2824 points, 5872 - 6266 points, and 6263 - 6685 points respectively [4]. - Cross - variety Strategy: Cautiously participate in the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5].