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五矿期货能源化工日报-20250721
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-21 01:19
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off - season in mid - August will limit its upside potential. A short - term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the upstream start - up continues to decline, and the overseas supply - side interference is gradually digested. The demand is weak overall. After the price decline, the downstream profit has slightly recovered, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short position within the sector [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and exports is expected to increase, so the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - Rubber (NR and RU) has been rising strongly, and the overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has followed the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure in the future [13]. - In the case of benzene ethylene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side. In the short term, the geopolitical impact has subsided, and the BZN spread may be repaired [16]. - For polyethylene, the EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: As of Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.32, a 0.47% decline, at $67.3; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, a 0.60% decline, at $69.23; INE main crude oil futures closed up 15.20 yuan, a 2.94% increase, at 532 yuan [1]. - Data: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventories increased by 0.53 million barrels to 10.05 million barrels, a 5.52% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 13.13 million barrels, a 4.66% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 6.50 million barrels, a 0.49% increase; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.52 million barrels to 5.42 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.43 million barrels to 6.36 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 41.46 million barrels, a 0.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - Market Quotes: On July 18, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2365 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +20 [4]. - Analysis: The upstream start - up continues to decline, and the profit slightly drops. The overseas device start - up returns to a medium - high level. The demand is weak overall, and the downstream profit has slightly recovered after the price decline, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited [4]. Urea - Market Quotes: On July 18, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6]. - Analysis: Domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers starts to pick up as they enter the autumn fertilizer production stage, and exports are still ongoing. The price has support at the bottom, but the upside is restricted by high supply [6]. Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU have been rising continuously and strongly [8]. - Analysis: The overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. The long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4937 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4840 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-1) [13]. - Analysis: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall start - up rate of PVC has increased. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased. The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the market is expected to face pressure [13]. Benzene Ethylene - Market Quotes: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene have both increased, and the basis has weakened [16]. - Analysis: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, and the supply of benzene ethylene has also increased. The port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [16]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price has increased [18]. - Analysis: The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price has decreased [19]. - Analysis: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Polyester PX - Market Quotes: The PX09 contract rose 68 yuan to 6810 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 839 dollars. The basis was 104 yuan (-15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan (+6) [21]. - Analysis: The maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4744 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan to 4780 yuan, the basis was 29 yuan (+5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan (-14) [23]. - Analysis: The supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG09 contract rose 4 yuan to 4376 yuan, the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 4433 yuan, the basis was 59 yuan (-3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan (-1) [24]. - Analysis: The overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24].