美国关税上半场小结：难征的税

Group 1: Tariff Measures and Economic Impact - The tariff measures in the first half of 2025 were characterized by a "high opening and low closing" trend, with significant reductions in tariffs announced after April 9[6] - Actual tariff rates increased by only 6.5%, significantly lower than the theoretical increase of 14.5%, leading to lower-than-expected tariff revenue growth[11] - China's share of U.S. imports dropped from 13.4% in 2024 to 7.4% by May 2025, indicating a shift in import sources due to tariff measures[13] Group 2: Export and Inflation Trends - Chinese exports showed stable volume and price increases, with a potential moderate decline expected in the future[23] - U.S. inflation remained low despite tariff increases, primarily due to weak demand in the automotive market and fluctuations in oil prices[32] - The actual tax rate increase led to a theoretical inflation rise of 2.1%, but the observed inflation was only 0.9% from January to May 2025, indicating a significant dampening effect from other economic factors[32] Group 3: Future Tariff Expectations and Risks - If further tariff increases are implemented, particularly targeting transshipment, the actual tariff rates and their economic impacts may exceed current expectations[33] - Risks associated with excessive TACO trading (Trump Always Chicken Out) should be monitored as they could affect market sensitivity to tariff changes[33] - A potential downturn in the U.S. economy could reverse the effects of tariff measures, posing additional risks to economic forecasts[34]