对二甲苯：供需仍偏紧，滚动正套PTA：跟随成本波动，MEG：震荡市，月差正套减仓

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Unilateral trend is oscillating with an upward bias, and rolling long positions on the monthly spread are recommended. Keep an eye on the long PX and short EB/EG positions. The supply and demand of PX remain tight. On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic plants has decreased, and some plants have unexpectedly reduced their loads. In the second half of the month, attention should be paid to the possible maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical. On the PTA side, the operating rate has rebounded, and the 1.5 million - ton Sanfangxiang plant is in trial operation. In terms of valuation, Shandong Yulong is about to start production, the valuation of MX has decreased, and the PX - MX spread has widened [8]. - PTA: Caught in the game between weak downstream demand and cost, TA shows a unilateral oscillating market. The 9 - 1 monthly spread should be operated within the range of 20 - 70. The PTA processing fee is still hard to improve. Regarding the spread between varieties, consider long PTA and short PF. On the supply - demand side, the operating rate of existing PTA plants continues to rise, and new plants are put into production, resulting in a loose supply. However, on the demand side, the impact of filament plant production cuts on the overall polyester operating rate is limited. This week, the polyester operating rate slightly dropped to 88.5% (-0.3%). PTA is expected to maintain a slight inventory accumulation pattern. Considering that the current PTA raw material inventory of polyester plants is not high, and after the bottle - chip plants restart in August, the polyester operating rate will gradually recover, the inventory accumulation of PTA in August is limited, and the basis will stabilize and rebound after falling to par [9]. - MEG: Reduce positions on the 9 - 1 monthly spread. The unilateral price of ethylene glycol should be operated within the range of 4250 - 4450. Regarding the basis and monthly spread, the market is concerned about the restart of Satellite Petrochemical at the end of August, which may create delivery pressure on the market in late August and the 09 contract on the futures market, so long positions on the monthly spread should be exited in the short term. From the supply perspective, imports were 620,000 tons in June, expected to be 630,000 tons in July, and less than 600,000 tons in August. The operating rate of domestic coal - based ethylene glycol plants is at a high level (70%). In July, attention should be paid to the restart of Yangmei Shouyang 200,000 - ton, Yulin Chemical 400,000 - ton, and Zhonghuaxue 300,000 - ton plants. The total load of domestic ethylene glycol is 66% (-1.37%). In August, attention should be paid to the restart progress of Guanghui 400,000 - ton, Zhejiang Petrochemical 800,000 - ton, and Satellite Petrochemical 900,000 - ton plants. Before there are no unexpected load changes in the ethylene plants, the supply is slightly loose. With weak polyester demand, the inventory days of MEG in polyester plants have been rising recently, limiting the upside space of the unilateral price of ethylene glycol [9][10]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - PX: On July 18, the price of Asian paraxylene increased by $6 per ton to $839.33 per ton CFR Unv1/China, driven by market sentiment and the strengthening of crude oil prices. This increase was mainly due to the market reaction after a technical problem occurred at the Shenghong Petrochemical refinery in China on July 16. However, some market participants believe the supply impact may be limited as Shenghong has obtained external mixed xylene raw materials. Attention is turning to the upcoming Sanfangxiang new PTA plant, which is expected to start production in late July, potentially increasing the demand for PX and adding upward pressure on prices. As of July 17, the overall operating rate of Chinese PX plants was about 81.10%, slightly lower than the previous week's 81.30%. On July 18, there were inquiries and offers for September and October delivery of PX cargoes, but no transactions were concluded [4][5][6]. - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - based ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to restart in early August, which has been shut down since late March. Three ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a total capacity of 1.7 million tons/year have encountered difficulties in restarting due to infrastructure problems, and their upstream and downstream plants are currently shut down, with the specific restart time undetermined [7]. - Polyester: A 200,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plant in Sichuan has restarted, planning to produce one line of hollow fibers and two lines of cotton - type fibers, and is expected to produce products this week. A 300,000 - ton polyester plant in Wuxi is restarting and is expected to produce normal filaments at the beginning of this week, mainly producing polyester filament yarn. A 250,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plant in Xinjiang has shut down for maintenance, with a previous daily output of 400 tons, and the restart time is undetermined. On the 18th, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 84% by 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang also increased overall, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of about 90% by 3:30 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of paraxylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are provided, along with the changes in their monthly spreads [4]. - Spot: The prices and price changes of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are presented, as well as the changes in spot processing fees such as PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, etc. [4].