国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the elastic space [2][4] - Stainless Steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to lithium mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are in the process of destocking, and the futures market is relatively resilient [2][12] - Polysilicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and the futures market has an upward driving force [2][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,500 yuan, the stainless - steel main contract was 12,725 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 94,302 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 162,130 lots. Other data such as import nickel prices, spreads, and production costs also showed corresponding changes [4] - Macro and Industry News: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; Some nickel smelters and cold - rolling mills in Indonesia had production adjustments; The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period; The approved production target in 2025 was higher than that in 2024; Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses [4][5][6][7] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,960 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,206,323 lots and a position of 377,305 lots. Other data such as spot prices, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [9] - Macro and Industry News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; There were intensive policy deployments in the new - energy vehicle industry; A Zimbabwean state - owned mining enterprise planned to build a lithium - concentrate beneficiation plant [10][11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, and that of PS2509 was 43,850 yuan/ton. There were also data on trading volume, position, spreads, spot prices, profits, and inventories [13] - Macro and Industry News: Two component tenders were postponed or terminated [13] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (relatively strong) [15]