国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc., based on their respective fundamentals, market news, and macro - economic factors [2][5]. - Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products expected to be strong, some in a range - bound state, and others showing weakness. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply is tight with some domestic plants reducing loads. Demand may increase due to the upcoming PTA plant start - up. It is expected to be unilaterally strong with a strategy of rolling long on the spread. Suggest following the long PX short EB/EG position [5][12]. - PTA: Caught in a game between weak downstream demand and cost. It is expected to be in a sideways market, with the 9 - 1 spread operating in the 20 - 70 range. PTA is likely to maintain a small inventory build - up [12][13]. - MEG: In a sideways market with a reduction in the long position on the 9 - 1 spread. Supply is relatively loose, and the price upside is limited due to weak polyester demand [13][14]. Rubber - The price is expected to be strong with a sideways trend. Factors include potential typhoons in Hainan, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia affecting tapping, and strong cost support [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center is moving up in the short - term due to policy expectations, a strong rubber sector, and improved fundamentals. However, there is pressure on the supply side in the medium - term [19][21]. Asphalt - It is expected to be in a range - bound state. Weekly production decreased slightly, plant inventory decreased, and social inventory increased slightly [22][37]. LLDPE - In a range - bound state. Supply pressure is increasing with more production capacity coming online in the third quarter, while demand support is weak [38][39]. PP - Spot prices are sideways with light trading. Futures have little support for the spot market, and downstream demand is weak [43][44]. Caustic Soda - There are expectations for the peak season. Although in the off - season now with limited price increase power, cost support is strong due to weak liquid chlorine, and the 10 - 1 spread can be long [46][47]. Pulp - It is expected to be strong with a sideways trend. Futures prices are rising, and the market shows a pattern of strong futures and weak spot, with high port inventory and weak demand [50][51]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. There are small price adjustments in different regions, and the overall shipment is average [54][55]. Methanol - It is expected to be strong. The domestic supply has shrunk in the short - term, and it may follow the overall strength of commodities. However, there is negative feedback from low MTO profits [57][60]. Urea - It is expected to be strong in the short - term. Inventory is decreasing, and it may follow the overall strength of commodities. But there is pressure from the end of domestic agricultural demand [62][64]. Styrene - It is expected to be strong in the short - term due to anti - involution sentiment. However, it is still in a high - production, high - profit, high - inventory pattern and is mainly a short - position target [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The device is adjusting, production is high, and downstream demand is stable with low - price procurement [68][69]. LPG - It is expected to be weak with a sideways trend. There are multiple PDH plant maintenance plans, and Saudi CP expectations are falling [72][81]. PVC - It is expected to be strong in the short - term but with pressure. The high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, and there is pressure from new production capacity [84][85]. Fuel Oil - The rebound continues, with a short - term sideways trend. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak compared to high - sulfur fuel oil, and the high - low sulfur spread has slightly decreased [89]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a high - level sideways state. It is recommended to hold a small short position on the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 spreads [91].