集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，10-12反套、10-02反套轻仓持有

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience high-level fluctuations. It is recommended to hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly. [1][9] - The 2508 contract's performance is influenced by Maersk's freight rates. Depending on different scenarios, its delivery settlement price may fall within different ranges. [8] - The 2510 contract is in the traditional off - season for the European Line. The market's fundamental trading logic is to short on rallies, but in the short term, it may show high - level fluctuations due to factors such as concentrated short positions and market sentiment. [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - Contract Prices and Changes: The EC2508 contract closed at 2,265.9 points, up 5.80%; EC2510 closed at 1,613.0 points, up 1.55%; EC2512 closed at 1,791.0 points, up 2.22%. Over the past week, the main 2510 contract rose 16.7% and added 22,398 lots; the secondary main 2512 contract rose 16.2% and added 2,131 lots; the near - month 2508 contract rose 235.3 points and reduced 13,984 lots. [1][6] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different trends. For example, the trading volume of EC2510 was 68,673, and its open interest was 51,371, with an increase of 1,346 in open interest. [1] 2. Freight Rate Index - SCFIS and SCFI: The SCFIS for the European route was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was $2,079/TEU, down 1.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI for the US West route was $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% bi - weekly. [1] - Spot Freight Rates: In late July, MSC and Yang Ming slightly decreased their rates, while other shipping companies' FAK remained stable. In August, ONE's offline rates remained the same, and the OA Alliance and MSC may announce rate increases. [7] 3. Shipping Capacity - Weekly and Monthly Average Shipping Capacity: Data on weekly and monthly average shipping capacities from China to European basic ports are presented, but specific analysis is not provided in the report. Future sailings may be dynamically adjusted, and the pending voyages in September are not included in the shipping capacity statistics. [4] 4. Market Fundamentals - Cargo Volume: Benefiting from the strong FOB cargo volume, shipping companies' loading conditions at the end of July were optimistic, and the cargo volume at the beginning of August still had support. However, on a monthly basis, August is likely to see an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is unclear. [8] - Contract Analysis: Different scenarios for the 2508 contract's delivery settlement price are analyzed based on Maersk's freight rates. For the 2510 contract, due to it being in the off - season, the fundamental trading logic is to short on rallies, but short - term high - level fluctuations are expected. [8][9] 5. Macro News - Geopolitical Events: A new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks. The Israeli military issued an evacuation warning and will launch a ground offensive in Deir al - Balah in central Gaza. Iran agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with three European countries on the nuclear issue. [5][6]