黑色板块日报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently trading on the combination of weak reality and strong expectations, with an increasing optimistic expectation for policies. The demand for the plate sector is significantly better than that for building materials, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise [2]. - For iron ore, the market is in the off - season of consumption, and iron - water production is expected to decline in the near future. The supply is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Although the decline in port inventory supports the futures price, the inventory of traded ores at ports is relatively high. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, including steel, which boosts market sentiment and causes a pulse - like increase in futures prices [2]. - Supply and Demand Situation: This week, the production of threaded rods decreased, factory inventory declined, social inventory continued to rise, and total inventory increased. Apparent demand continued to decline week - on - week, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - Technical Analysis: Futures prices stopped falling and rebounded, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing short - term strength [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider buying on dips after adjustments, and be cautious about chasing high prices [2]. - Data Summary: - Prices: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as their spot prices, all increased to varying degrees compared to the previous day and week [2]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis and spreads of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils showed different changes [2]. - Production: The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, while the production of electric - arc furnace threaded rods increased significantly [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of five major steel products increased, with an increase in threaded rod social inventory and a decrease in hot - rolled coil social inventory. Factory inventory decreased [2]. - Market Transactions: The trading volume of construction steel in the spot market decreased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand Situation: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with the profitable steel - mill ratio close to 60%. Iron - water production increased last week but is expected to decline in the near future. The global shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the inventory of traded ores at ports is relatively high [4]. - Technical Analysis: Futures prices rose strongly, breaking through multiple resistance levels [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing high prices, and wait patiently for a pull - back before buying on dips [4]. - Data Summary: - Prices: The prices of various iron - ore powders at ports and futures settlement prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease [4]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis and futures monthly spreads of iron ore changed to varying degrees [4]. - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian iron - ore shipments showed different trends, and the arrival volume at northern six ports decreased [4]. - Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore at sample steel mills decreased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, including steel, to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [2][7]. - The China Iron and Steel Association proposed five suggestions at the Steel Industry Planning Ministerial Meeting, including controlling incremental capacity, strengthening data governance, promoting the development of short - process electric - arc furnace steelmaking, etc. [7]. - Canada will expand the scope of import steel tariff quotas and tighten existing quotas from August 1st, which is considered a unilateral and protectionist act by China's Ministry of Commerce [7]. - According to Gangyin E - commerce data, the total urban inventory increased this week, with an increase in construction steel inventory and a decrease in hot - rolled coil inventory [8].