超长债周报：多空交织，超长债再度放量-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuated at a high level this week, with a lot of incremental information on the news front. The domestic economy still faces downward pressure, and the fundamental factors that the bond market relies on have not yet shown an inflection point. As the 10 - year treasury bond yield approaches 1.7%, the opportunities in the bond market outweigh the risks [1][2][3]. - Although the strong stock market suppresses the sentiment of the bond market, the term spread of the 30 - year treasury bond and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond are still low, with limited spread protection [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Super - long Bond Review - The bond market fluctuated at a high level this week. The economic data in June and the second quarter showed strong production but weak domestic demand. The financial data in June showed positive changes, the capital market tightened, the central bank conducted a 1.4 - trillion buy - out repurchase operation with a net injection of 200 billion yuan, and the strong equity market suppressed the bond market sentiment [1][4][12]. - Last week, the trading activity of super - long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and variety spread widened [1][4][12]. Super - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bond: As of July 18, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, at a relatively low historical level. The domestic economy in June showed resilience but weak domestic demand. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2%, up 0.1% from May, still higher than the annual target. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly. There is still a deflation risk. The bond market opportunities outweigh the risks, but the term spread protection is limited [2][13]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: As of July 18, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market opportunities outweigh the risks, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][14]. Super - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding super - long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion. As of June 30, the total amount of super - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 22.2528 trillion, accounting for 14.5% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties [15]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.3%, local government bonds 67.5%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (July 7 - 11, 2025), the issuance volume of super - long bonds increased significantly, reaching 231.4 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 123 billion yuan, local government bonds 80.7 billion yuan, etc. By term, the 30 - year issuance was 125.8 billion yuan [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 279.7 billion yuan in total. By variety, super - long treasury bonds are 83 billion yuan, super - long local government bonds 181 billion yuan, etc [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of super - long bonds was quite active. The trading volume was 1.2068 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.7% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - The bond market fluctuated at a high level this week. The yields of different - term super - long bonds of various varieties changed to different degrees. For example, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 0BP, - 1BP, 1BP, and - 1BP respectively to 1.80%, 1.90%, 1.89%, and 1.95% [39]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: Last week, the term spread of super - long bonds widened, but the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 6% quantile since 2010 [50]. - Variety Spread: Last week, the variety spread of super - long bonds widened, with a low absolute level. The spreads between the 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond, and between the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond were 4BP and 7BP respectively, both up 1BP from the previous week, at the 6% and 4% quantiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2509 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 120.46 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The total trading volume was 438,300 lots (a decrease of 52,833 lots), and the open interest was 150,000 lots (a decrease of 1,106 lots), with both trading volume and open interest decreasing slightly [58].