光大证券晨会速递-20250721

Macro Analysis - June retail data in the US showed a month-on-month increase, but the resilience should not be overestimated due to potential tariff disruptions and inflation adjustments. Actual retail sales growth was only 0.3% after adjusting for a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index [1] Market Strategy - The market has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of 2025, potentially breaking through the peak of the second half of 2024 [2] Credit Bonds - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, totaling 401.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% from the previous period. Notably, city investment bonds increased by 16.25% [3] REITs Market - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed a trend of rising then falling prices, with an overall return rate of 0.11%. Property-type REITs increased, while concession-type REITs decreased [4] Quantitative Analysis - Market momentum effects were dominant, with public research selection strategies yielding significant excess returns. The public research selection strategy outperformed the CSI 800 by 3.33% [5][6] Automotive Industry - The "anti-involution" trend may shift the automotive industry from price-cutting to technology upgrades and cost reductions. Recommended stocks include XPeng Motors for strong tech capabilities and Geely for solid fundamentals and undervaluation [8] Electric Power Equipment - In June 2025, inverter exports remained stable at $920 million, while component and battery exports decreased by 24% year-on-year. Transformer exports increased by 48% year-on-year [9] Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in revenue to 20.09 billion yuan and a 16.7% increase in net profit to 11.66 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating strong fundamental resilience [10] Petrochemical Industry - New Fengming plans to invest in high-end bio-based fibers, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 reflecting a decrease of 28% and 22% respectively. The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its leading position in polyester [11] Construction Industry - China Power Construction is expected to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated annual contract value of 21.8-29.1 billion yuan, significantly enhancing the company's order book [12] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home is positioned as a leading global home appliance brand, with a positive outlook for air conditioning sales and a projected net profit of 21.5 billion yuan for 2025 [13]