华泰证券今日早参-20250721

Macro Insights - The recent increase in port activity suggests a high export sentiment ahead of tariff exemptions, with June exports supporting industrial production recovery [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce growth stabilization measures for ten key industries, indicating a rise in "anti-involution" policies and price increases in the black and photovoltaic supply chains [2] Market Strategy - A-share market shows signs of strength, with a shift towards large-cap growth stocks. The "anti-involution" sectors are expected to see valuation recovery, supporting market momentum [3] - Mid-year financial data indicates a strong performance, improving mid-term profit expectations across the A-share market. Focus on sectors like aviation equipment, wind power, and storage for potential growth [3] Fixed Income Insights - Investors exhibit a preference for equities over bonds, with expectations of stable economic production but weak demand. The bond market remains in a volatile state, with a focus on long-term and ultra-long-term bonds [7] - The recent survey indicates a strong interest in macro topics such as consumption policies and tariff negotiations, with a stable funding environment supporting bond market demand [7] Power Equipment and Renewable Energy - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to generate significant investment opportunities, with estimated project values between 53.5 billion and 95.4 billion [9] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, are anticipated to benefit from sustained order growth, potentially alleviating market concerns regarding order sustainability [9] Transportation and Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing growth driven by strong online consumption, with courier volumes showing significant year-on-year increases. The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to stabilize end-user pricing, benefiting major logistics companies [10] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported a strong Q2 performance with revenues of USD 30.07 billion, exceeding guidance due to robust demand for advanced nodes. The company raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast to approximately 30% [16] - The anticipated growth in AI demand is expected to drive revenue increases in advanced process technologies, with a positive outlook for TSMC's operational performance [16] Consumer Goods - The dairy industry is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a return to supply-demand balance by 2026. The recovery in raw milk prices is projected to positively impact upstream dairy farming profits [12] - Major players like Yili and Mengniu are expected to benefit from improved profit margins as the industry stabilizes and demand recovers [12]