棕榈油：基本面上涨偏早，警惕情绪回落，豆油：跟随油脂板块上涨，品种间偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental factors for palm oil are driving prices up earlier than expected, and there is a need to be vigilant about a potential reversal in market sentiment [1] - Soybean oil is following the upward trend of the oil and fat sector but is relatively weaker compared to other varieties [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 8,964 yuan/ton with a 1.91% increase, and night - time closing price was 9,046 yuan/ton with a 0.91% increase; soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,160 yuan/ton with a 1.09% increase, and night - time closing price was 8,162 yuan/ton with a 0.02% increase; rapeseed oil's daytime closing price was 9,586 yuan/ton with a 1.55% increase, and night - time closing price was 9,637 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 4,308 ringgit/ton with a 3.06% increase, and CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 55.58 cents/pound with a 1.02% decrease [3] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For palm oil, the trading volume was 703,683 lots with an increase of 136,146 lots, and open interest was 557,055 lots with an increase of 18,911 lots; for soybean oil, the trading volume was 341,179 lots with an increase of 58,794 lots, and open interest was 558,184 lots with an increase of 21,624 lots; for rapeseed oil, the trading volume was 334,935 lots with a decrease of 4,376 lots, and open interest was 246,843 lots with an increase of 12,848 lots [3] - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan/ton with an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,300 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,560 yuan/ton with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 dollars/ton with a decrease of 5 dollars/ton [3] - Basis and Spreads: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 6 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 140 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 26 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 622 yuan/ton, and between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 804 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 32 yuan/ton, of soybean oil was 42 yuan/ton, and of rapeseed oil was 77 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 were 817,755 metric tons, a 3.5% decrease compared to the same period last month [4] - On July 18, the Nigerian Plantation Owners Forum (POFON) announced measures to stabilize global crude palm oil prices. Nigeria's crude palm oil production has reached 1.5 million tons, and it aims to increase palm oil planting area to 500,000 hectares [6] - During the 29th week (July 12 - 18), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.81%, 74,800 tons lower than expected [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0. The value range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]