合成橡胶：价格中枢上移

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually moving up and showing a relatively strong performance. In the medium - term, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber face significant pressure, and the increase in supply may restrict price elasticity and upside potential [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Market: For the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price was 11,720 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 90,365 lots (up 20,978 lots), the open interest was 17,214 lots (down 1,197 lots), and the trading volume was 529.173 million yuan (up 129.436 million yuan) [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 70 yuan (down 100 yuan), the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 25 yuan (unchanged). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) increased by 50 yuan, 70 yuan, and 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 50 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) increased by 150 yuan and 100 yuan respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 50 yuan [1]. - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) was 11,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) were 12,100 yuan/ton and 10,900 yuan/ton respectively, up 150 yuan and 100 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [1]. - Fundamentals: The butadiene operating rate was 66.3354%, up 1.05% from the previous day. The theoretical full cost of butadiene was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged. The butadiene profit was - 482 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. [Industry News] - As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price and the spot and futures market once rose significantly, with the inventory of sample production enterprises decreasing and the inventory of sample trading enterprises increasing slightly [1]. - In the short - term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually moving up and showing a relatively strong performance. The reasons are: the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity, driving the overall strength of commodities; the rubber sector is generally strong, with the raw material price in Thailand stabilizing and the cup - lump price rebounding slightly, and there are many weather - related speculation points for natural rubber; the fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry chain have improved marginally, with the explicit inventory of synthetic rubber decreasing slightly for two consecutive weeks, and the low arrival volume of butadiene in July leading to tight port supplies [1][3].