美财长对日谈判释放良好信号,四部门规范新能源车竞争秩序
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-07-21 02:17
- Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference has recovered, with the dollar index oscillating at a high level, gold struggling to break through and rise, and the stock market remaining bullish in the absence of significant macro - level negative factors. Different commodities show various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and policy impacts [1][2][3] - In the commodity market, some products like palm oil, coal, and iron ore have their own price trends influenced by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy expectations. For example, palm oil prices may be affected by Indonesian supply and biodiesel plans; coal prices are supported by seasonal demand but face pressure later; iron ore prices are expected to remain high but with limited upside [27][31][35] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about Japan - US trade negotiations and has sent positive signals regarding China - US negotiations, causing gold to remain in an oscillatory range. The possibility of dismissing Powell is low, and inflation expectations have decreased [12][13][14] - Investment advice: Gold prices will remain range - bound in the short term [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The Japanese ruling coalition has lost its majority in the Senate, and the US Treasury Secretary has advised Trump not to dismiss Powell. The dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16][18] - Investment advice: The dollar will oscillate at a high level in the short term [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Four departments are standardizing the new energy vehicle industry's competition order. The stock market is enthusiastic, and in the absence of more macro - level negatives, it is more likely to rise than fall [21] - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank is soliciting opinions on canceling the freeze on bond repurchase collateral, and short - term bond yields have declined rapidly. There may be opportunities to go long around the Politburo meeting, but attention should be paid to trade - related risks in August [23][25] - Investment advice: Sell positions at previous highs and continue to go long on dips [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of July 12 - 18, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons, and the expected volume for July 19 - 25 is 2.2351 million tons. The rise in palm oil prices is due to supply shortages in Indonesia and speculation on biodiesel [26][27] - Investment advice: Observe or go long on dips [29] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 18, the import market for steam coal was quiet. Due to seasonal demand, coal prices are expected to remain high, but attention should be paid to pressure after August [30][31][32] - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with attention to post - August pressure [33] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production and sales in Q2 2025 increased. Iron ore prices are following the upward trend of industrial products, and the market's long - term pessimism has improved, but the upside is limited [34][35] - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain high, with the disk mainly compressing profits [36] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In June 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn and 30,000 tons of cotton. US cotton export data is sluggish, and ICE cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [37][38][40] - Investment advice: Be cautious when chasing the rise of Zhengzhou cotton [40] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly. US soybean prices are rising due to strong demand, and the basis of soybean meal remains weak [41][42] - Investment advice: The futures price will oscillate strongly, and the basis of soybean meal will remain weak [43] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar. A large amount of imported sugar will arrive in July - August, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate [46][47] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate, with attention to the resistance level of 5900 [47] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Canada is strengthening steel import restrictions. The inventory of steel products continues to decline slightly, and steel prices are expected to remain strong in the short term but face risks in August [48][50][51] - Investment advice: Steel prices will oscillate strongly in the short term, and traders are advised to hedge on rebounds [51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Starch factory inventory pressure is increasing, and the开机 rate is expected to remain low [52] - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the开机 rate will remain low [52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the July 18 imported corn auction was 18%. Corn prices in North China have rebounded, and the basis has weakened [53] - Investment advice: Hold short positions on new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [53] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - China's alumina production in June 2025 was 7.749 million tons. The news of eliminating backward production capacity in the non - ferrous industry may boost the futures price [54][55] - Investment advice: Observe [56] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's unforged copper exports in June 2025 increased. The global copper inventory is rising, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [57][59] - Investment advice: Change the short - selling strategy to observation; continue to observe for arbitrage [59] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Some companies have issued statements against false information. The price of polysilicon has increased, but the supply is expected to rise. The price of silicon wafers has also increased, but it is lower than the benchmark [60][62] - Investment advice: Going long on dips may be more secure [63] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon enterprises have temporarily shut down. The supply recovery is slower than expected, and industrial silicon is expected to be strong in the short term [64][65] - Investment advice: Take a long - biased view in the short term and observe the resumption of production by large factories [66] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ghana is re - evaluating a lithium project. The expiration of mining licenses in Jiangxi may cause supply concerns [67][68] - Investment advice: Take profit on long positions and forward spreads; consider reverse spreads [68] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote structural adjustment in key industries. The supply of lead is tightening, and demand is improving [69][70][71] - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to go long on dips; observe for arbitrage [71] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peru's zinc concentrate production in May 2025 increased. The upward trend of zinc has been established, and short - selling should be avoided in the short term [72][74] - Investment advice: Observe unilaterally; consider near - month positive spreads for arbitrage; observe for internal - external trading [75] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. supplies high - nickel materials for solid - state batteries. The anti - involution policy has boosted the non - ferrous sector, and nickel prices may follow the upward trend [76][78] - Investment advice: Observe or take small long positions in the short term; consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [79] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. Investment funds have reduced their net long positions, and the carbon price may be affected by weather and renewable energy [80] - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate in the short term [81] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the oil price cap. Oil prices are oscillating narrowly, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - long term [82][83] - Investment advice: Oil prices will remain oscillatory [84] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The Asian styrene market is quiet. The styrene basis and spread have declined, and the port inventory may increase. Pure benzene may see more buying from macro funds [84][85] - Investment advice: Observe styrene unilaterally; consider long - term allocation of pure benzene after a better risk - return ratio [85] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable, with increased supply and moderate demand. The basis - collection of caustic soda is completed, and further price increases are difficult [86][87] - Investment advice: It is difficult for caustic soda to rise further [87] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has trended higher, but high - price transactions are weak. The pulp price has risen due to policy and coal price rebounds, but the upside is limited [88][89] - Investment advice: The upward space of pulp is limited [89] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has been narrowly adjusted, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. PVC has rebounded with the market, but the subsequent market may be limited [90][91] - Investment advice: The subsequent PVC market may have limited upside [91] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in South China has been weakly stable. The supply is high, and the demand is stable. In the medium term, it is advisable to short on rallies [92] - Investment advice: Short soda ash on rallies in the medium term [92] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has been stable. The glass market is volatile, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to use a long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [93][94] - Investment advice: The main contract may fluctuate between 900 - 1100 yuan/ton; use the long - glass short - soda - ash strategy [94] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Typhoons have caused South China ports to suspend operations. The container freight rate index has fluctuated. The 08 - 10 spread has widened, and there may be short - selling opportunities for the 10 - contract [95][97] - Investment advice: Consider short - selling the 10 - contract on rallies or when the spot inflection point is confirmed [97]