五矿期货农产品早报-20250721

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the US soybeans is expected to be range - bound. The domestic soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. The palm oil market is volatile, and the sugar, cotton, egg, and pig markets each have their own supply - demand and price characteristics and trading outlooks [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - Market Situation: The US soybeans fell in the night session last Friday. The US soybean oil rose, and recent US agricultural trade agreements boosted US soybeans. However, good weather in North America limited the upside. The domestic soybean meal spot prices increased slightly over the weekend. The oil mill's soybean meal transactions were okay, and downstream inventory days exceeded last year's level. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small upward fluctuations due to a single supply source [2][3]. - Trading Strategy: The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side [5]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports had different trends in June. In July, the palm oil yield increased, and the output increased. The overall commodity sentiment was positive last Friday, and foreign capital's positions in the three major oils continued to hit new highs. EPA policies are bullish, but there are still bearish factors in the palm oil market [7]. - Trading Strategy: The palm oil market is volatile. Although there is a possibility of price increases in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, the upside is limited by factors such as high - level annual production increase expectations and weak edible demand in major demand countries [10]. Sugar - Market Situation: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different trends. In June 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year, but from January to June, the imports decreased year - on - year [12]. - Trading Strategy: The domestic sugar market is in the best import profit window in the past five years. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline is relatively high [13]. Cotton - Market Situation: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose first and then fell. The spot price of cotton increased. The开机 rates of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and China's cotton imports decreased significantly year - on - year [15]. - Trading Strategy: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average. The expected issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential bearish factor [16]. Egg - Market Situation: Egg prices generally rose over the weekend, but the upward momentum was insufficient. High - temperature weather affected egg production, and large - sized eggs were in short supply. The peak - season demand started, and the turnover in each link accelerated [19]. - Trading Strategy: The near - month contracts are volatile, and for the post - festival contracts after September, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [20]. Pig - Market Situation: Pig prices rose over the weekend. The previous continuous decline in pig prices led to strong price - holding sentiment among farmers, and the supply decreased. However, in some areas of East China, the supply increased, and the demand was insufficient [22]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the spot price may rise again in August, and the 09 contract can be considered for buying on dips. For off - season contracts such as 11, wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [23].