宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250721

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently in a weak fundamental situation. PX supply has no positive support, and with the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工. The fundamentals are moving towards weakness. - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Although PTA processing fees are in a low - range, unplanned device overhauls are difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. - Polyester bottle - chip supply is abundant, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious. The entire polyester industry chain follows cost fluctuations, and it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream - WTI crude oil futures settlement price (continuous) was $67.34 per barrel on July 18, 2025, down 0.30% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $69.28 per barrel, down 0.35%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $576.38 per ton, up 0.28%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $705.50 per ton, up 1.88%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $839.00 per ton, up 0.74% [1]. - PTA - CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,744 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 0.64%; settlement price was 4,752 yuan per ton, up 0.93%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,781 yuan per ton, up 0.99%. The CCFEI price index for domestic PTA was 4,782 yuan per ton, up 1.14%, and the outer - disk index was $622.00 per ton, up 0.32% [1]. - PX - CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,810 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 1.01%; settlement price was 6,808 yuan per ton, up 1.40%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,667 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. The spot price (CFR Taiwan, China) was $840.00 per ton, up 0.72%, and the FOB South Korea price was $815.00 per ton, up 0.74% [1]. - PR - CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,930 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 0.47%; settlement price was 5,938 yuan per ton, up 0.75%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.25%, and in the South China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, up 0.33% [1]. - Downstream - The CCFEI price index for polyester staple fiber was 6,630 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 0.38%. The index for polyester chips was 5,850 yuan per ton, up 0.86%, and for bottle - grade chips was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.25% [2]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - PX spot price increased by 0.2% week - on - week to $839 per ton CFR by Friday, but the weekly average price decreased by 0.8% to $839 per ton CFR. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to improve depends on unexpected factors [2]. - On July 18, the PX CFR China price was $839 per ton. The oil market on the cost side was strong, a reforming device in East China reduced its load, and with new PTA production capacity in trial operation on the demand side, the expectation of tight supply and demand increased, and the market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [2]. Transaction Strategy - PTA fluctuated higher, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,744 yuan per ton (up 0.76%), and the daily trading volume was 1.29 million lots. PX price increased, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,810 yuan per ton (up 0.43%), and the daily trading volume was 283,200 lots. PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,930 yuan per ton (up 0.61%), and the daily trading volume was 58,400 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].