铅：供需矛盾逐步显现，价格走强

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction of lead is gradually emerging, and the price is strengthening [1]. - In May 2025, the global refined lead market had a supply shortage of 37,600 tons, with production of 1.1113 million tons and consumption of 1.1489 million tons [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Price and Volume: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,820 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,011.5 dollars/ton, up 1.72%. The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 32,288 lots, an increase of 893 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 9,912 lots, an increase of 1,265 lots. The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 50,581 lots, a decrease of 1,370 lots; the LME lead open interest was 136,098 lots, a decrease of 457 lots [1]. - Premium and Discount: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 23.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 dollars/ton. The PB00 - PB01 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - Inventory: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 60,084 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the LME lead inventory was 268,400 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 74,975 tons, an increase of 35,225 tons [1]. - Cost and Profit: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was - 533 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 592.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.75 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was - 460.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.24 yuan/ton [1]. News - Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in July, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield once fell about 4 basis points. Trump is reported to be pushing for higher tariffs on the EU, and tariffs on multiple industries will take effect before August 1st. US consumer inflation expectations have improved [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a steady - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [2].