新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-21）-20250721

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating strongly [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong operation [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Strongly oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating more [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating more [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating more [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating more [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Short at high prices [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products on July 21, 2025. It is believed that the "anti-involution" policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, the iron ore market is temporarily stable in the short term but oversupplied in the long term, the coking coal and coke market is expected to be strong in the short term, and the steel market is affected by policies and demand and may fluctuate strongly. In the financial market, with the improvement of China's economic data and the implementation of positive policies, the stock index is expected to rise, and the bond market may be volatile. Precious metals are affected by factors such as interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank purchases and are expected to maintain high-level oscillations. In the agricultural and light industrial product markets, the prices of logs and some oils and meals are expected to be strong, while the prices of live pigs are expected to be weak. The rubber market is in a state of supply and demand adjustment and is expected to oscillate widely. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The "anti-involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, and the iron ore price has risen significantly. The end-of-season impulse of mines is basically over, and global iron ore shipments have declined to some extent. The near-term arrivals have increased month-on-month due to the previous high shipments, and the supply remains loose. In the off-season of the industry, the output of five major steel products has decreased, but the molten iron output has increased by 26,300 tons to 2.4244 million tons month-on-month, and the iron ore port inventory has slightly increased. In the long term, the supply of iron ore is expected to gradually increase, the demand will remain relatively low, and the port inventory will enter the accumulation channel, with the pattern of oversupply remaining unchanged. Due to short-term sentiment disturbances, the iron ore price has risen significantly and broken through the 750 yuan/ton mark, and it is expected to be strong [2]. - Coking coal and coke: After the first round of price increases, the cost of coke still faces pressure, and the market's expectation of future price increases has strengthened. With the molten iron output remaining high, the current fundamentals of coke are relatively healthy, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The overall operation of coking plants is stable, with smooth shipments, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase goods remains high, resulting in a slightly tight supply of spot goods. With the arrival of high temperatures and the rainy season in various regions, downstream demand has weakened, but the current profitability is still acceptable, and the overall enthusiasm for operation is good, with the molten iron output continuing to rise. Currently, steel mills' enthusiasm for purchasing coke has slightly increased. The current supply of coke spot goods is tight, and the price of upstream coking coal still has support. It is expected that the coke price will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trends of molten iron and the supply side of coking coal and coke in the later stage [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: The "anti-involution" has triggered a rise in the positive sentiment on the supply side. Although the Central Urban Work Conference did not meet expectations, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry has continued to boost market sentiment, and the futures price has continued to rise. In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month. The profits of five major steel products are acceptable, and the output has declined month-on-month. The pressure on the total steel inventory is not obvious, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. In June, infrastructure was weak, real estate was stable, and exports were strong, basically in line with previous expectations. External demand exports were overdrawn in advance, and real estate investment continued to decline. Total demand is unlikely to show an anti-seasonal performance. On the basis of no increase in total annual demand, an obvious pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. In the short term, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry has improved market sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether more policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Finished steel products are currently supported by the macro and policy aspects [2]. - Glass: The "anti-involution" trading may continue, and the Politburo meeting is approaching, with the macro situation being neutral and strong. On the demand side, the glass deep-processing orders have weakened slightly month-on-month, but the speculative demand brought by the rising futures price is relatively strong. On the supply side, the output is expected to increase after the glass produced by the previously ignited production lines comes out, and the pressure on the supply side still exists. To meet the seasonal destocking of glass, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to below 154,000 tons. There are many disturbances in market sentiment. The inventory of glass in the middle and lower reaches is low, with room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment cycle, and the year-on-year decline in the completed floor area of houses is relatively large, making it difficult for the glass demand to rebound significantly. In the short term, continuous observation is needed to see if the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.60%, the CSI 50 index rose by 0.74%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.28%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.25%. Funds flowed into the basic metals and fertilizer and pesticide sectors, while funds flowed out of the electronic components and automobile parts sectors. The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Durban, South Africa. China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high-level opening up in the second half of the year. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, emphasizing that cooperation and win-win results are the right path. The market's risk aversion sentiment has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield to maturity of the 10-year Chinese government bond remained unchanged, FR007 decreased by 4 basis points, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 187.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with a net investment of 102.8 billion yuan on the day. The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury bond price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Precious metals: - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and the reconstruction of globalization, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks to purchase gold are crucial, reflecting the concentration of "decentralization" and risk aversion needs. In terms of monetary attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been successfully passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the de-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in the global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion attributes, although the geopolitical risk has weakened marginally, Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and the market's risk aversion demand remains strong, which has become an important factor in boosting the gold price in stages. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has increased significantly, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise of the gold price has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that the Fed's interest rate policy will be more cautious this year, and the evolution of the tariff policy and geopolitical conflicts will dominate the change in market risk aversion sentiment. According to the latest US data, the non-farm payrolls data shows that the labor market is relatively resilient, with the non-farm employment population exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The PCE data in May shows that the inflation data has slowed down, with the core PCE rising by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and the PCE rising by 2.3% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, indicating the resilience of core inflation. The CPI in June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, in line with market expectations and rebounding from the previous month, indicating the resilience of inflation. With the progress of trade negotiations, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to weaken. In the short term, the weakening of the US dollar, combined with the uncertainty of geopolitics and tariff policies, and the debate over the Fed's independence have boosted the demand for risk aversion funds, but some funds have shifted to alternative assets such as silver. It is expected that the gold price will maintain high-level oscillations [4]. - Silver: It is expected to operate strongly [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - Pulp: On the previous trading day, the spot market price of pulp was strong. The price of some coniferous pulp in the spot market rose by 20 - 70 yuan/ton, and the price of some broadleaf pulp in the spot market rose by 70 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of coniferous pulp decreased by 20 US dollars to 720 US dollars/ton, and the latest FOB price of broadleaf pulp decreased by 60 US dollars to 500 US dollars/ton. The decline in the cost price has weakened the support for the pulp price. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, and the inventory pressure of paper mills is relatively large, with low acceptance of high-priced pulp. The demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for the pulp price. The pulp market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will oscillate mainly under the game between long and short positions [6]. - Logs: Last week, the average daily shipment volume of logs at the port was 58,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,100 cubic meters month-on-month. The downstream demand was poor, the orders of processing plants declined significantly, the utilization rate of the sawing machine capacity of processing plants decreased, and the average daily outbound volume dropped below 60,000 cubic meters. In June, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.406 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.3% from the previous month. The expected arrival volume this week is 192,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 44% month-on-month. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.22 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters month-on-month. The spot market price is relatively stable. The spot market price in Shandong is stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week, and the price in the Jiangsu market is stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week. The latest CFR quote in July is 114 US dollars/cubic meter, an increase of 4 US dollars from the previous month, with a maximum of 117 US dollars, and the cost-side support has increased. In the short term, the arrival volume of logs has decreased again, the supply pressure has eased, and the sudden hurricane in the key ports of New Zealand's logs has affected the log shipments, stimulating the rise of the log price. Although the average daily outbound volume is below 60,000 cubic meters, the "anti-involution" policy in China has boosted market sentiment, and the shortage of the 6-meter medium A, the mainstream delivery product in the Taicang area, has promoted the price increase. It is expected that the log price will maintain a strong oscillation [6]. - Oils and meals: - Oils: In June, the production of Malaysian palm oil was 1.692 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% month-on-month, while the inventory increased to 2.03 million tons, the fourth consecutive month of growth, mainly due to the unexpected decline in exports. The increase in the export tariff in July may further slow down the export pace. The production activity of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil as the main raw material, and is also boosted by Indonesia's B40 policy. Affected by the large arrival of South American soybeans and the high-pressure crushing of oil mills, the domestic soybean oil inventory has accelerated the growth, the palm oil inventory has rebounded, and the rapeseed oil inventory has continued to decline, but the year-on-year inventory pressure is still high. The inventory of the three major oils has continued to rise, with sufficient supply and a demand off-season, lacking its own driving force. However, it benefits from the expectation of biodiesel, and the oils are expected to oscillate more in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Meals: The estimated output of US soybeans has been reduced, but the increase in the crushing volume cannot offset the decrease in the export volume, and the final increase in the year-end inventory exceeds expectations. The growth of US soybean crops is good, and the improvement of the US crop rating has strengthened the expectation of a bumper autumn harvest. However, the expected consumption of US soybean crushing is continuously driven by the favorable biofuel policy, which supports the US soybean futures price. The agricultural trade agreement reached between the US and Indonesia has increased the market's confidence in future soybean export demand, and the US soybean price has risen. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China in July is about 10 million tons, and the operating rate of oil mills remains relatively high. Some oil mills in certain regions are facing the pressure of full storage of soybean meal, and the phenomenon of oil mills urging提货 has increased, with the提货 volume of soybean meal at a high level. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate more in the short term under the boost of cost and the expectation of US soybean exports. Attention should be paid to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival situation of soybeans [6]. - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to show a downward trend. The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has dropped to 124.91 kilograms. From a regional perspective, the average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have risen and fallen, but the overall trend is downward. Recently, the increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain rate of live pigs. In addition, after the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs was relatively high, and slaughtering enterprises increased their procurement efforts for low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall average procurement weight. However, some large-scale farms in certain regions have chosen to hold back pigs for weight gain based on the bullish expectation of the large pig market, driving a slight increase in the average trading weight of live pigs in the local area. Looking forward to the future, as the breeding end may continue to adopt the weight loss strategy, and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions still has room to decline. However, considering the continuous phenomenon of holding back pigs for weight gain in some regions, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs across the country may continue to decline slightly. The average settlement price of live pigs of key slaughtering enterprises has risen slightly to 15.55 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.98% month-on-month. From the price trend, the settlement price shows an oscillating downward trend. Affected by factors such as the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding end and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, although the overall average price has increased slightly compared with last week, the price has fallen from the high level due to the price reduction and procurement by slaughtering enterprises. At the same time, the average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises this week has dropped to 31.97%, a decrease of 0.97 percentage points month-on-month. The decline in the operating rate is mainly due to two factors: on the one hand, the supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the procurement difficulty of enterprises has decreased