钢材周度策略报告：前期低点或成历史，钢价盘面趋势向上-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. The outlook for the future is oscillating and slightly strengthening. [2][59] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main contract of rebar RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,133 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, with a position of 2.1269 million lots, a decrease of 103,100 lots. The main contract of hot - rolled coils HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.61031 million lots, an increase of 132,000 lots. - Spot market: This week, the spot price center of rebar moved up. As of July 17, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,170 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price center of hot - rolled coils moved down. As of July 17, the price of Benxi Steel 5.751500C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,200 yuan/ton compared with last week. [5][6] 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 84 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.51500C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 28 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 16 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. [10][11][12] Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel this week was 83.46%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.83 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products counted by Mysteel this week was 8.6819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 tons. The effect of the "anti - involution" policy signal is gradually emerging, and the reduction of rebar and hot - rolled coils is obvious. [19] 2.2 Demand - Recently, the US government has targeted 14 countries and imposed a "tariff bomb." US President Trump posted multiple letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off - season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino - US trade friction and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. The path for the realization of the off - season logic in the future is expected to be less smooth, and the demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. [2][30] 2.3 Inventory - The social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country counted by Mysteel this week was 9.2211 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.1555 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,200 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 13.3766 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and the steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream and continuing a certain de - stocking trend. [2][34] 2.4 Profit - This week, the price of rebar rose. The average cost of electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The increase in rebar prices in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. The average profit of steel mills was - 92 yuan/ton, and the average profit during off - peak electricity hours was 11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Some electric arc furnace steel mills have turned from losses to profits and have actively chosen to resume production or increase production time to improve production saturation. [2][47] 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billets increased by 4 yuan/ton to 2,993 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 20 yuan/ton to 768 yuan/ton. [56] Summary and Investment Suggestions - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. [2][59]