Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends for various commodities. Some are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy expectations and external factors such as tariffs and international market trends [1][2][3][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On July 18, A - share major indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1571.1 billion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4058.55, up 24.06 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On July 18, the weighted coke index was strongly consolidated, closing at 1527.0, up 19.2. The coking coal price increase led to a decline in coking enterprise profits and insufficient production enthusiasm, resulting in a continuous decline in daily coke output. Although the molten iron in the off - season decreased slightly, the absolute level was at a high point in the year, supporting the daily consumption of furnace materials. The coke inventory of coking enterprises decreased, and the market was optimistic with expectations of price increases [1] - Coking Coal: On July 18, the weighted coking coal index remained strong, closing at 943.2 yuan, up 23.8. Some coal mines had limited production due to underground reasons, and the supply recovery was slow. During the Nadam Fair, Mongolian coal imports were restricted, and the port inventory decreased. As spot transactions improved, coke - steel enterprises increased their inventories, and the futures price fluctuated strongly [2] Zhengzhou Sugar - The news that Coca - Cola changed its formula to use cane sugar in the US market supported the futures price. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 18. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China imported 1.0508 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 251,200 tons or 19.29% year - on - year. As of July 15, speculators reduced their short positions in ICE US raw sugar futures for the second consecutive week [2] Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted on July 18. As of July 18, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,916 tons, a decrease of 673 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2050 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 40,824 tons, an increase of 402 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 36,691 tons, a decrease of 303 tons [3] Shanghai Copper - In the short term, the shortage of the copper ore supply and low processing fees support the price. However, there is an expectation of increased global copper mine production, and supply pressure may gradually appear in the long term. The off - season demand is weak and may continue. The US tariff policy is an important uncertain factor. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the upper pressure level around 79,000 and the lower support level around 77,000 [3][4] Cotton - On the night of July 18, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,230 yuan/ton. On July 21, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 53 lots compared with the previous day [4] Log - The 2509 contract opened at 838 on July 18, with the lowest at 824, the highest at 846.5, and closed at 828.5, with a decrease of 625 lots in positions. The market reached a four - month high and then declined, with increased trading volume. The support level is 800 - 820, and the pressure level is 850. From January to June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. The port shipment volume decreased, and the spot trading was weak [4] Steel - Policy signals of "anti - involution" production restrictions and expanding domestic demand have led to an increase in the expectation of supply - side contraction in the second half of the year. The black - series futures led the increase, driving up the spot price. However, in the coming week, if there is no new positive news, the pressure for futures long - positions to take profits will increase. After profit recovery, the willingness of electric - arc furnaces to resume production has increased, and the weekly output may stop falling and increase slightly. It is expected to maintain a range - bound trend [5] Alumina - The domestic bauxite port inventory is gradually increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Due to the increase in spot and futures prices, smelters' production willingness has increased, and the operating capacity has grown. Although the increase in alumina prices has increased the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants, the high aluminum price still provides good profits, and a capacity replacement project in Yunnan supports the demand for alumina. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is stable [5] Shanghai Aluminum - Major producers maintain normal production, and some expanded production capacities are being released. The operating capacity is at a high level. Due to the off - season, the ingot - casting volume has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand from traditional industries is weak, and although emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries are developing rapidly, their demand - pulling effect is limited at present. The supply is stable, and the demand is temporarily weak [6]
国新国证期货早报-20250721
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-07-21 02:25