宝城期货国债期货早报-20250721

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Currently, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited, in an oscillatory stage. With the central bank's net injection of liquidity and market interest rates close to policy rates, the upside of interest rates is limited. There is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the short - term possibility is low, so the downside of interest rates is also limited. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory arrangement [5]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definition is that short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For TL2509, short - term: oscillatory; medium - term: oscillatory; intraday: weakly oscillatory; overall view: oscillatory. The core logic is a loose monetary policy environment with a low short - term possibility of interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Last Friday, Treasury bond futures continued to oscillate. The upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. The central bank's net injection of liquidity and market interest rates close to policy rates limit the upside of interest rates. There is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the short - term possibility is low, limiting the downside of interest rates. Short - term Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].