研究所晨会观点精萃-20250721

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View of the Report Domestic market optimism continues to ferment, and risk appetite continues to rise. Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields have declined, and global risk appetite has cooled. In China, economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: Driven by sectors such as small metals, energy metals, and trade, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The economy grew higher than expected in H1, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policies may boost risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers have increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term high - level oscillations, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Last week, precious metals oscillated at high levels. Trump's tariff announcements and US economic data affected gold prices. The Fed's rate - cut expectations have slowed, and the US dollar's rise restricts the upside of gold prices. In the short term, gold is in a box - shaped oscillation range, while silver has a relatively strong technical - surface catch - up logic. In the medium and long term, the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4]. Black Metals - Steel: Apparent consumption declined, but steel futures and spot prices continued to be strong. The market expects policy support. Real - demand weakened, and supply decreased. Cost support is strong. Short - term, a slightly bullish oscillation is expected [2][5][6]. - Iron Ore: Futures and spot prices strengthened. Although it is the off - season for finished - product demand, high steel - mill profits led to a rebound in hot - metal production. After the end - of - quarter shipment rush, the shipping volume decreased. Short - term, a slightly bullish oscillation is expected [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreased. The production of some factories in Inner Mongolia resumed, and the开工 rate increased slightly. Short - term, prices may follow the rebound of coal prices [7]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The main contract was in a range - bound pattern. Supply increased, and demand weakened. Profits declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is pressured by the supply - demand imbalance. Short - term, prices are supported [8]. - Glass: The main contract was in a range - bound pattern. Supply pressure increased during the off - season. The market expects production cuts due to the "anti - involution" policy. Demand remained weak, but profits increased. Short - term, prices are supported [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: US inflation rebounded, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations decreased. The upcoming stable - growth plan for the non - ferrous industry is positive. The key to copper prices lies in the tariff implementation time [11]. - Aluminum: Social inventories are still increasing. The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have weakened. Short - term, there is support at 20200 - 20300, but the price may decline after oscillation [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: Scrap - aluminum supply is tight, and production costs are rising. It is the off - season for demand. Short - term, prices may oscillate slightly upward, but the upside is limited [11]. - Tin: Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weak. Short - term, prices will oscillate, and the medium - term upside is restricted [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: Futures and spot prices rose. Production increased, and social inventories continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, short - term, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward [13]. - Industrial Silicon: Futures and spot prices rose. Production remained stable, and the number of open furnaces decreased. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward [14]. - Polysilicon: Futures and spot prices rose. The exchange's regulatory measures led to a decline on Friday, but the sector remains strong. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward [15]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Short - term trading has slowed slightly, but the spot is still tight. The market is concerned about tariffs and OPEC+ production increases. Mid - term, prices will continue to oscillate [16]. - Asphalt: Prices followed crude - oil costs and oscillated strongly. Demand is average, and inventory accumulation may occur. Short - term, prices will follow the crude - oil center but oscillate weakly [16]. - PX: The supply is tight after the commissioning of downstream PTA plants. The price has rebounded slightly. Short - term, prices will oscillate slightly upward, but the upside is limited [16]. - PTA: The basis has declined, and trading volume has increased slightly. Demand is in the off - season, and processing fees are low. Short - term, prices will oscillate [17]. - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventories have decreased slightly. Overseas plant outages and low import expectations have led to inventory reduction. Short - term, prices will oscillate [17]. - Short - fiber: Prices followed the polyester sector and oscillated weakly. Terminal orders are average, and inventories are high. Short - term, prices will continue to oscillate weakly [17]. - Methanol: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Inventories have risen, especially at ports. Short - term, prices will oscillate weakly [18][19]. - PP: Production is expected to increase, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventories are expected to accumulate. Short - term, prices will move downward [19]. - LLDPE: Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are rising. Short - term, prices may rebound slightly but with limited upside [19]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: High - temperature warnings in the US soybean - producing areas increase the risk of yield reduction. The market's concern about US soybean exports has eased. Short - term, prices may have a phased rebound [20]. - Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal: Soybean meal is the leading protein product. The futures price has strengthened, and the spot price has risen. Short - term, prices will oscillate at high levels [21]. - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil: Soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil has a stable supply. Both are affected by palm oil. Short - term, prices will follow palm oil [22]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm - oil export tax will increase. Indian demand for replenishment exists. Short - term, the market is bullish, but the resistance to rising prices has increased [22][23].