宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250721

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is rising, the medium - term view is oscillating strongly, and the intraday view is also oscillating strongly. It is advisable to focus on the support at the MA5 line as the supply - demand pattern is good and the ore price is running strongly [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good. After the end of inspections, steel mills resumed production actively, leading to an increase in terminal consumption of ores. With good profitability of steel mills, the demand for ores has good resilience, providing strong support for the ore price. Although port arrivals have increased as expected, miners' shipments are weak. According to ship schedules, subsequent domestic arrivals will decline again, overseas ore supply will decrease, and domestic ore production will stabilize, resulting in a contraction in supply. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good, and the optimistic market sentiment persists, supporting the strong operation of the ore price. However, considering that the valuation has reached a relatively high level, the upside space should be cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term view is "rising", the medium - term view is "oscillating strongly", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The view reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good and the ore price is running strongly. There are also explanations for the calculation of price fluctuations and the definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is good. Steel mills' resumption of production after inspections boosts terminal consumption, and the good profitability of steel mills ensures demand resilience. Port arrivals increase but miners' shipments are weak, leading to a future decline in domestic arrivals and overseas supply. Domestic ore production stabilizes, resulting in supply contraction. The current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, along with optimistic market sentiment, supports the strong operation of the ore price. However, due to the relatively high valuation, the upside space should be cautiously optimistic, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [3].