宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For soybean meal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all positive. In the short - term, it's expected to be strong, in the medium - term, it's also strong, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that due to trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly. The core logic is that the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - Core Logic: Affected by trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, so the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7][8]. - Core Logic: The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. Other Considerations - For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, refinery operating rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [7].