宁证期货今日早评-20250721

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - Commodities: Different commodities show various trends. Some are expected to be bullish (e.g., short - term coal, iron ore), some bearish or lack upward momentum (e.g., plastic), and others are expected to oscillate (e.g., crude oil, glass, methanol) [1][2][4][5][6][10][11] - Livestock: The short - term pig price is expected to be slightly stronger, and short - term long trading is recommended [8] - Agricultural Products: For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to go long at low prices; palm oil is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] - Bonds: The long - term bond market is facing a critical choice, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum [12] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] 3. Summaries by Commodity Energy - Crude Oil: The EU approved sanctions on Russia, and the US drilling rig count decreased. OPEC+ maintains an increase stance, but actual supply growth is limited. Short - term observation is recommended [6] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the price may be supported by the peak power generation season in the Middle East, showing a tight supply - demand balance. An oscillation strategy is recommended [8] Metals - Iron Ore: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, port arrivals increased, and steel mill profitability and molten iron production increased. The price is expected to be strong in oscillations [5] - Steel: The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by policies, the short - term market is expected to be strong in oscillations [4] - Silver and Gold: Due to the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, there is uncertainty. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] Chemicals - Plastic: LLDPE supply is expected to increase, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides some support. The L09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [2] - Methanol: Coal prices are expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase, and demand is expected to be weak. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - PTA (Bottle Chip): Supply is decreasing, but downstream inventory - building willingness is low. An oscillation strategy is recommended [7] - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass enterprises is stable, terminal demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. The glass 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Agricultural Products - Rapeseed Meal: Canadian rapeseed exports increased, but its addition ratio in feed is low. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9] - Palm Oil: Indonesian palm oil production is expected to decrease, and it is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] Livestock - Pig: Pig prices rose slightly on weekends. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long trading is recommended. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [8] Bonds - Long - term Bonds: Bank - to - bank regulation is strengthening, and there are uncertainties in the long - term bond market. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [12] - Short - term Bonds: The short - term interest rate is expected to decline, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the direction choice near the 60 - day moving average [12]