宝城期货动力煤早报-20250721

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation", and it is expected to run strongly due to the resonance of fundamental and news - related factors [1][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Price and Market View - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation", with the core logic being the resonance of fundamentals and news driving the strong operation of thermal coal [1][4] Driving Logic of Price Quotes - Supply: In the Lvliang Zhongyang area, environmental inspections are strict. One coal mine stopped production on July 18 due to gangue treatment issues, and three other mines are still in a state of shutdown or production reduction. In the future, under the premise of ensuring energy supply security, thermal coal may transition from an oversupply situation to a balanced supply - demand pattern [4] - Demand: As of July 10, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.148 million tons, a weekly increase of 61,000 tons; that of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.551 million tons, a weekly decrease of 95,000 tons. There is good support for thermal coal demand during the peak season, and the atmosphere at the mine mouth is improving [4] - Inventory: As of July 17, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.6985 billion tons, with a slight weekly de - stocking of 34,000 tons. The inventory is 1.151 million tons higher than the same period last year, at a five - year high, indicating sufficient coal storage [4]