Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Baocheng Futures Rebar Morning Report (July 21, 2025) [1] - Author: Tu Weihua [5] - Author's position: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [5] - Author's qualification: F3060359 (futures practice certificate), Z0011688 (investment consulting certificate) [5] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 3: Core Views - For Rebar 2510, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is oscillating strongly, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market, and steel prices will oscillate upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are relatively under pressure. However, with low inventory and minor real - world contradictions, combined with the fermentation of policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials providing cost support, steel prices are expected to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For Rebar 2510, short - term: rise; medium - term: oscillating strongly; intraday: oscillating weakly. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices will oscillate upwards. The calculation of price changes and the definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment is strong, and weekend steel spot prices have risen significantly. The supply of rebar has contracted to a low level as construction steel mills' production has weakened, but the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of production cuts is not strong. Rebar demand continues the seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators performing poorly and at a low level in recent years. The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure, but low inventory means minor real - world contradictions. Policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials provide cost support, so steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250721
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-21 02:28