信用周观察系列：科创债爆火，还能追否？

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The Sci - tech Innovation Bonds have witnessed a booming trading volume due to the significant increase in the scale of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs. However, they are currently "overbought", and their ETF component bonds have low cost - performance. It is recommended to focus on the spread opportunities of non - component bonds and non - Sci - tech Innovation Bonds compared to Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF component bonds. [1][2][15] - In the volatile market, holding 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds may be a more flexible choice. Short - duration credit enhancement can consider 3 - year AA perpetual bonds and 2 - year AA - bank capital bonds. [3][5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Urban Investment Bonds: Single - month Net Financing May Turn Positive, and High - grade Bonds Prevail in the Sci - tech Innovation Bond Market - Urban investment bond net financing has increased, and single - month net financing may turn positive. From July 1 - 20, 2025, the issuance was 271.5 billion yuan, the maturity was 239.2 billion yuan, and the net financing was 32.3 billion yuan, but it decreased by 62.1 billion yuan year - on - year. [24] - In the primary market, the issuance enthusiasm remains high, and the proportion of full - scale multiples above 3 times remains at 60%. Many municipal platforms have refreshed the issuance term length, and the issuance interest rates of all terms are at historical lows. [24] - In the secondary market, the yields of urban investment bonds generally declined, and the credit spreads mostly narrowed. High - grade 3 - year and low - grade 10 - year bonds performed better. Sci - tech urban investment bonds performed prominently, with an average low - valuation of nearly 5bp. [27][30] 2. Industrial Bonds: Both Issuance and Trading Have Reduced Duration - In July, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. From July 1 - 20, 2025, the issuance was 507.1 billion yuan, and the net financing was 225.2 billion yuan. The net financing scale of the food and beverage, public utilities, and non - banking finance industries was relatively large. [31] - The proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly, and the issuance interest rates of all terms declined. In terms of trading, the buying sentiment recovered, the trading duration decreased slightly, and the proportion of high - grade trading decreased slightly. [31][33] 3. Bank Capital Bonds: Yields Declined Across the Board, and Trading Sentiment Warmed Up - From July 14 - 18, 2025, the yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and the spreads mostly narrowed. 2 - 3 - year bank capital bonds and low - grade perpetual bonds performed better, while 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds performed weakly. [19][36] - In terms of trading, the trading sentiment of bank capital bonds warmed up. The secondary capital bond trading extended the duration, while the perpetual bond trading slightly reduced the duration. The trading sentiment of city commercial banks also warmed up significantly, with the secondary capital bond trading extending the duration and spreading to low - grade bonds. [39] - Regarding TLAC bonds, the 10 - year TLAC bonds are more cost - effective than secondary capital bonds at present. [42]