国泰君安期货所长早读-20250721

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy focus in the second half of this year is clear, aiming to repair the supply - demand mismatch pressure through "anti - involution" and "anti - deflation", improve the sluggish nominal growth rate, and address industrial homogenization competition and local protection issues for high - quality development. In the early stage of policy implementation, expectations outweigh reality, and the market may follow a similar logic to stock market valuation expansion. Later, expectations will give way to reality, and price performance will fluctuate according to actual situations [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities of gold and silver are both 1 [11][17][21] - Copper: Market sentiment is positive, supporting copper prices. The trend intensity is 0 [11][22][24] - Zinc: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [11][25][27] - Lead: Supply - demand contradictions are gradually emerging, and lead prices are strengthening. The trend intensity is 1 [11][28][29] - Tin: Tin prices are weakening. The trend intensity is - 1 [11][32][35] - Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina has capital inflows, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy are 0, 1, and 0 respectively [11][36][38] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Macro - sentiment boosts nickel expectations, but reality limits its upward space. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and macro - factors. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [11][39][43] Energy - related - Carbonate Lithium: Attention should be paid to lithium mining industry policies, and carbonate lithium is expected to run strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [11][44][46] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is de - stocking in supply and demand, and the market is resistant to decline. Polysilicon has an upward - driving force due to sentiment fermentation. The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0 and 1 respectively [11][47][50] - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - expectations, iron ore is in a strong - oscillating state. The trend intensity is 1 [11][51][52] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Market sentiment remains high, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [11][56][59] - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend intensities of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are both 0 [11][60][62] - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke has completed a round of price increases and is oscillating strongly. Coking coal is also oscillating strongly. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are 0 and 1 respectively [11][64][67] - Steam Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and steam coal is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend intensity is 0 [11][69][72] Others - Log: Log is in a wide - range oscillation [11][73]