生物柴油行业深度系列（二）：生物航煤SAF：航空碳减排核心路径，明确掺混政策有望落实

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - SAF is identified as a key pathway for carbon reduction in the aviation industry, with the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 85% compared to traditional aviation fuels. Its physical properties are similar to conventional jet fuel, eliminating the need for significant modifications to existing infrastructure and aircraft engines [3][8]. - The report anticipates that 2025 will mark the beginning of substantial progress in SAF blending policies across multiple countries, with mandatory blending ratios set to be implemented in regions such as the EU, UK, and Indonesia [4][24]. - The demand for SAF is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase from 50,000 tons in 2020 to 6.3 million tons by 2025, and further to 18.35 million tons by 2030, representing a rise in its share of total aviation fuel consumption from 2% in 2025 to 5% in 2030 [4][28]. Summary by Sections SAF as a Key Pathway for Carbon Reduction - SAF is recognized as a feasible solution for achieving carbon neutrality in aviation, with various production methods available, including HEFA, ATJ, FT, and PtL. HEFA is currently the most mature and cost-effective method, although it faces limitations due to the availability of feedstock [8][9][11]. - The report highlights that the production cost of SAF varies significantly based on the yield from feedstock, with estimates ranging from $1,940 to $3,200 per ton. The profitability of SAF production is contingent on achieving higher yields and reducing costs through technological advancements [20][21]. Global Policy and Market Dynamics - The report outlines that several countries have established clear timelines for SAF blending ratios, with the EU and UK implementing mandatory blending policies starting in 2025. This is expected to catalyze demand and support SAF prices [4][24]. - The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has mandated that all member countries participate in the CORSIA mechanism for carbon offsetting starting in 2027, further driving the adoption of SAF [25]. Regional Developments - In China, the demand for SAF is projected to reach 2.81 million tons by 2030, with several airlines actively pursuing SAF pilot projects. The country is expected to become a major supplier of SAF globally [4][36]. - The EU aims to reduce the price gap between SAF and traditional jet fuel through carbon credit allocations and subsidies, with consumption expected to reach approximately 910,000 tons by 2025 [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are leading in SAF production and have received necessary certifications, such as嘉澳环保, 海新能科, and 鹏鹞环保, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in SAF demand [4][36].