Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% over the next six months [56]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid pace of the implementation of the 11th batch of national centralized procurement, with 55 varieties included, a decrease of 7 from the previous batch. The average price drop in past procurement batches ranged from 48% to 59% [4][10]. - The total sales scale of the 11th batch of procurement varieties in medical institutions is projected to exceed 49 billion yuan in 2024 [10]. - The report identifies key therapeutic areas for the 55 varieties, including blood and hematopoietic system drugs, digestive system and metabolic drugs, respiratory system drugs, and others, with varying numbers of products in each category [10][11]. Summary by Sections National Procurement Overview - The 11th batch of national centralized procurement includes 55 varieties, with a total of 515 varieties across all batches. The average price drop in previous batches was between 48% and 59% [4][6]. - The timeline from the release of procurement documents to the announcement of selected results is approximately 1-2 months, followed by 3-4 months for implementation [4][7]. Competitive Landscape - Among the 55 varieties, 37 have 10 or more qualifying companies, with 4 having 30 or more. The leading companies in terms of the number of approved varieties include Beite Pharmaceutical, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Fosun Pharma [10][12]. Changes in Procurement Rules - The report outlines changes in procurement rules for the 11th batch, including reasons for exclusion of certain products, such as low annual procurement amounts and high clinical risks [16][19]. - The reporting method for medical institutions has shifted from generic names to specific brand names for reporting quantities [19]. Sales and Market Share - The report provides a detailed table of the expected sales and market share for various products in the 11th batch, highlighting significant sales figures for products like Dapagliflozin and Olaparib, with market shares reaching up to 100% for some products [24][26]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with rich pipeline layouts, such as Heng Rui Medicine and BeiGene, as well as companies with significant single-product potential and leading technology platforms [30].
第十一批国采目录发布，关注集采政策推进节奏
Ping An Securities·2025-07-21 02:51