国泰君安期货LLDPE：区间震荡

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LLDPE industry is "interval shock" [1] Core View - In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in an interval shock market. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7216, with a daily increase of 0.10%. The trading volume was 262,918, and the open interest decreased by 8562 [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of the 09 contract was - 136 yesterday, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 27 [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080 yuan/ton, 7150 yuan/ton, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively yesterday [1] 2. Spot News - The market price of LLDPE fluctuated slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated, then declined in the afternoon. The market atmosphere was average, and downstream demand was limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - Macro: Domestically, the overall commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while externally, there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. Plastics are in an interval shock market [2] - Supply: In July, the maintenance volume will be less than that in June. The new production capacity of domestic PE devices in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 78.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [2] - Demand: The downstream of polyethylene is in the off - season. Terminal orders are weak, and enterprises are cautious in stocking. The overall start - up rate of the shed film industry is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]