钢材周报：政策预期影响钢价偏强走势-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - policy expectations are strong, and the short - term sentiment is warm. Although the steel fundamentals are in a weak pattern with poor off - season demand and average trade transactions, it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile and upward trend [1][6]. - The industry data last week was average, with weak supply and demand in the steel market. The supply and demand of rebar both decreased significantly, and inventory accumulation started last week. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils were stable with little change [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3147 | 9 | 0.29 | 8063884 | 3107454 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3310 | 34 | 1.04 | 2822204 | 1610257 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 785.0 | 18.5 | 2.41 | 1917710 | 703244 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 926.0 | 6.0 | 0.65 | 6863004 | 850792 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1518.0 | - 7.0 | - 0.46 | 144894 | 54981 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile and upward trend. The real - estate investment in the first half of the year remained weak, and the infrastructure investment decreased month - on - month. The terminal demand pressure remained high, but the market was affected by sentiment and showed an upward trend. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3000 (+40) Yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3250 (+30) Yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3340 (+40) Yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Multiple departments over the weekend called for "anti - involution". The China Iron and Steel Association required to control production capacity and prevent over - capacity risks; relevant departments regulated the new - energy vehicle industry competition order; the National Development and Reform Commission aimed to prevent inefficient and repeated construction in the low - altitude industry [7]. - On the morning of July 19, the construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion Yuan [1][5][7]. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 46658 billion Yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real - estate development enterprises all decreased [1][5][7]. - In the first half of the year, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248654 billion Yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The investment in some industries such as power and water supply increased significantly [5][7]. - The China Iron and Steel Association said that relevant departments would crack down on tax evasion in steel exports, and the annual steel export volume is expected to be between 7000 and 8000 million tons [7]. - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized that urban development has entered the stage of "stock quality improvement and efficiency increase" [5][7]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, spreads, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and apparent consumption, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][27][28][29][31][33][34][36][38][39]