氧化铝周报：淘汰落后产能消息主导氧化铝偏强-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news of eliminating backward production capacity released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Friday may affect some previously backward alumina production capacity. After a brief inventory build - up, the alumina warehouse receipt inventory has returned to an extremely low level of less than 10,000 tons. The market's bullish sentiment has returned, and alumina is expected to continue to be strong. However, the actual impact of the standards for eliminating backward production capacity on alumina needs to be further observed [2][4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From July 11th to July 18th, 2025, the price of the active alumina futures contract increased from 3,117 yuan/ton to 3,133 yuan/ton, a rise of 16 yuan/ton. The price of domestic alumina spot increased from 3,186 yuan/ton to 3,202 yuan/ton, also a rise of 16 yuan/ton. The spot premium changed from - 4 yuan/ton to 51 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina decreased from 370 US dollars/ton to 368 US dollars/ton, a drop of 2 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss improved from - 88.85 yuan/ton to - 85.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.7 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 18,612 tons to 6,922 tons, a decrease of 11,690 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [3] Market Review - Last week, the main alumina futures contract rose 0.51% to close at 3,133 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 3,202 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week. The supply and price of domestic bauxite remained stable last week. For imported ore, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on ore shipments is gradually emerging, but there is no direct impact on short - term arrivals in China due to the more than 45 - day shipping time. The alumina production capacity in operation remains at a high level. Some enterprises' calciner overhauls have ended, while others are still in progress, leading to a temporary shortage of supply in some areas and supporting the price. As of July 17th, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 81.18%. The demand for alumina has increased due to the resumption of production by Guizhou electrolytic aluminum enterprises and the transfer of production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 7,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [4] Market Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the optimization of the industrial structure and elimination of backward production capacity in ten major industries such as non - ferrous metals and steel. The bauxite end was basically stable last week, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments needs to be monitored. On the supply side, there are both increases and decreases in alumina production capacity, and the overall operating capacity remains at a high level. As of last Thursday, the domestic alumina operating capacity was 93.2 million tons, with an operating rate of 81.18%. The market sentiment of holding back goods and supporting prices remains unchanged, especially in some areas where spot goods are in short supply and the spot price is good. By the end of last week, the theoretical import window for overseas alumina slightly opened. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum plants replenish inventory as needed, mainly through long - term contracts, and some transactions have slightly increased following the quotes of alumina enterprises. The warehouse receipt inventory changed from a decrease to an increase this week, with a decrease of 12,000 tons to 7,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the news of eliminating backward production capacity may affect some previously backward alumina production capacity. The alumina warehouse receipt inventory has returned to an extremely low level, and the market's bullish sentiment has returned. Alumina is expected to continue to be strong, but the actual impact of the standards for eliminating backward production capacity on alumina needs to be further observed [2][5][6] Industry News - Canyon Resources announced the official start of the key infrastructure construction of the Minim Martap bauxite project, aiming to build an efficient export supply chain from the Minim Martap mine to the Douala port to support production in early 2026 and the first bauxite exports in the first half of 2026. Rio Tinto released its Q2 2025 production performance report, with bauxite production reaching 15.644 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5% (production guidance range: 57 - 59 million tons) [7] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory, which visually display the changes in relevant data over time [8][9][11]