固定收益点评：债市有哪些边际变化？

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's mention of "canceling the freeze on pledged bonds" has a neutral impact on the bond market, further confirming the central bank's limited easing attitude. The possibility of significant fluctuations in the money market is low. While the central bank continuously improves monetary policy tools to support government bond issuance and maintain liquidity, it does not want interest rates to decline rapidly, which could lead to increased interest rate risks [6][8][21]. - The current "anti - involution" campaign is in its early stage and has not directly affected the bond market. It mainly affects the bond market indirectly through the stock market, suppressing further declines in bond market interest rates. Whether it will have a significant impact on the bond market in the future depends on the implementation of specific industry policies and their impact on PPI, the boost of price improvements on demand and potential demand - side stimulus policies, and changes in the central bank's monetary policy attitude [6][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Marginal Changes - Central Bank's Monetary Policy Attitude: On July 18, the central bank proposed to cancel the freeze on pledged bonds for bond repurchases. This move can relieve institutional debt pressure, enhance the liquidity of pledged bonds, and improve secondary - market trading activity. It can also prevent short - term interest rates from falling too quickly during subsequent treasury bond trading operations. Overall, it has a neutral impact on the bond market, indicating the central bank's limited easing stance [8]. - "Anti - Involution" Implementation: After the central government emphasized "anti - involution" and relevant articles were published, industries such as automobiles, photovoltaics, and cement started to take action. The market associated this with the 2015 - 2016 supply - side reform, which led to rising commodity and stock prices and suppressed the bond market. During the 2015 - 2016 supply - side reform, bond market interest rates first declined and then increased. The factors influencing the change in interest rates included rising commodity prices and continuous improvement in PPI, the implementation of shantytown renovation monetization and a booming real - estate market, and the tightening of the central bank's monetary policy. In the current "anti - involution" campaign, due to incomplete policy implementation, high household leverage ratios, and the central bank's continued loose monetary policy, it has not directly affected the bond market but mainly influenced it through the stock market [12][13][20].