高频数据跟踪：生产热度上行，物价走势分化

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: July 21, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data shows that production is heating up, the real estate market is declining marginally, prices are diverging, and shipping indices are also showing a differentiated trend. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of new growth-stimulation policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and international geopolitical changes [2] Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: In the week of July 18, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.18 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.31 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 7.6 tons [3][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of July 16, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants increased by 0.1 pct [9] - Chemical Industry: The operating rates of PX and PTA remained flat compared to the previous week [9] - Automobile Tires: In the week of July 17, the operating rate of all-steel tires increased by 0.54 pct, and that of semi-steel tires increased by 3.07 pct [9] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of July 13, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased, the land transaction area declined, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased [13] - Movie Box Office: In the week of July 13, the total national movie box office revenue decreased by 123 million yuan compared to the previous week [13] - Automobile: In the week of July 13, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.8 million vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 0.7 million vehicles [15] - Shipping Indices: In the week of July 18, SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.77%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 23.39% [18] Prices - Energy: On July 18, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.53% to $69.28 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price increased by 2.53% to 932.5 yuan per ton [20] - Metals: On July 18, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.36%, +1.38%, and +3.14% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.73% [21] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products decreased. The wholesale price index of agricultural products 200 decreased by 0.54%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.29%, +0%, -1.36%, and -2.55% respectively compared to the previous week [23] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: On July 17, the seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased by 66,400 person-times, and that in Shanghai increased by 438,600 person-times [26] - Flight Volume: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 252.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 7.43 flights, and that of international flight volume increased by 14.71 flights [27] - Urban Traffic: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of the peak congestion index in first-tier cities decreased by 0.06 [27]