铅锌日评：区间偏强-20250721

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, it is currently in a situation of both supply and demand being weak with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and the expectation of the peak season support lead prices. Considering domestic policies guiding the clearance of backward capacity in non - ferrous metals, market sentiment is positive, and short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong [1]. - For the zinc market, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation trend is becoming apparent, showing a weak fundamental situation. However, due to strong market bullish sentiment and the news of clearing backward capacity in non - ferrous metals, short - term prices of Shanghai zinc are expected to be relatively strong, but the upside space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.72%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 1.84%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 2.84%, and the open interest decreased by 2.64%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.33% [1]. - Industry News: From July 11th to July 17th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 65.82%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 37.9%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points; and the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.96%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply, resulting in some smelters reducing or halting production. The demand side is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchases are expected to improve [1]. Zinc Market - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.95% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract increased by 0.75%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 3.16%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 2.34%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 94.89%, and the open interest increased by 72.51%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.75% [1]. - Industry News: From July 11th to July 17th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 59.12%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 51.95%, a decrease of 1.99 percentage points; and the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.32%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points. In May 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate output was 120,800 metric tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and the total output from January to May was 579,200 metric tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. As of July 17th, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [1]. - Fundamentals: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate is expected to improve, and the limitation on smelter production due to raw material shortages has weakened. On the demand side, although downstream purchases increased slightly when zinc prices fell during the week, the overall weak terminal demand situation remains, and overall purchases are limited [1].