国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - Silver: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - Copper: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - Zinc: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - Lead: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - Aluminum: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - Nickel: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - Coke: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - Soybean Meal: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - Corn: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - Sugar: Trades in a range [2][5]. - Cotton: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - Eggs: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - Hogs: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - Peanuts: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - Log: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].